Wildfire natech accidents in the wildland-industrial interface: exposure pathways analysis

Wildfires are growing more intense, and wildfire-induced industrial accidents and near-misses are increasing. These trends demand dedicated quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for wildfire Natech accidents. This paper assessed wildfire exposure pathways to industrial components through input from two i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Dossi, Simona|||0000-0002-2212-5934, Pastor Ferrer, Elsa|||0000-0002-2985-3635, Agueda Costafreda, Alba|||0000-0001-5021-8014, Vacca, Pascale|||0000-0001-5863-1030, Planas Cuchi, Eulàlia|||0000-0002-7053-3959
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2026
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:upcommonspor::c8dda430bf903bd2a3bc6e72a86d0fd1
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/461436
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112771
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Wildfire
Natech
Risk
Fault tree analysis
Hazard
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria química
Descripción
Sumario:Wildfires are growing more intense, and wildfire-induced industrial accidents and near-misses are increasing. These trends demand dedicated quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for wildfire Natech accidents. This paper assessed wildfire exposure pathways to industrial components through input from two international stakeholder workshops and a fault tree analysis (FTA); the FTA highlights missing models and data to estimate wildfire induced industrial failure. Establishing a wildfire Natech QRA methodology requires wildfire hazard metric models and critical industrial components response tests to the most likely hazard mechanisms. Considering four exposure mechanisms (flame radiation, flame contact, firebrand exposure, and the fire environment), the FTA identifies 30 basic or underdeveloped events that shape impact pathways in chemical industries. The identified events directly indicate the missing models and investigations required to formalise wildfire Natech risk assessments. A case study illustrates the FTA for two industrial components, estimating the fire probability of an external floating roof tank and the loss of containment probability for plastic intermediate bulk containers exposed to normal and extreme wildfire conditions.