From chaos to cohesion: urban antifragility model and post-crisis sustainable evolution strategies
(English) Urban crises reveal the true essence of our cities: their ability to collapse or, on the contrary, to sublimate themselves in adversity. Floods, economic shocks, pandemics — all tremors that expose every fragility but, paradoxically, can also unleash transformative potential. While resilie...
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| Format: | doctoral thesis |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Country: | España |
| Institution: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repository: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/440533 |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/440533 https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-440533 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Post-crisis strategies Urban antifragility Sustainable cities and communities Disaster resilience and urban regeneration Risk governance and Black Swan adaptation 502 - Natura. Estudi, conservació i protecció de la natura 71 - Urbanisme. Paisatgisme, parcs i jardins Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Urbanisme |
| Summary: | (English) Urban crises reveal the true essence of our cities: their ability to collapse or, on the contrary, to sublimate themselves in adversity. Floods, economic shocks, pandemics — all tremors that expose every fragility but, paradoxically, can also unleash transformative potential. While resilience works to restore a fragile status quo (Davoudi, 2012), antifragility (Taleb, 2012) is bolder: it draws raw energy from each crisis to reinvent itself and rise to a higher level of evolution. This research demonstrates how this paradigm, when applied to the urban fabric, can become a new operational strategic lever: rather than enduring the crisis, the city exploits it, crushes it, and extracts from it a new force, a “fuel” for mutation and sustainable growth. Following a critical analysis of existing post-crisis management approaches, fifteen fundamental theoretical principles were identified and empirically confronted with the reality of twenty-seven cities that have experienced major crises. Six of them demonstrated an exemplary urban trajectory, revealing how key mechanisms (strategic diversity, proactive innovation, systemic anticipation, active prevention, sustainable resilience) are articulated to metabolize uncertainty. By breaking down the structures and dynamics at work, this research reveals the "DNA" of urban antifragility and leads to the formalization of a conceptual framework equipped with an operational toolkit built around proven and quantifiable dynamics. This tool provides: (i) a precise diagnosis based on 75 performance indicators, making it possible to rigorously assess the capacity of cities to adapt and transform in the face of crises; (ii) a strategic roadmap to "reprogram" the urban trajectory, articulated around priority axes and concrete actions facilitating optimal evolution; (iii) a register of best practices, empirically proven in antifragile cities, used to strengthen public policies and guide implementation guidelines. The full-scale experiment carried out in Tel Aviv made it possible to confront the model with reality on the ground. A multi-level survey system was deployed, combining in-depth interviews, strategic round tables and targeted surveys with local stakeholders. This evaluation validated the conceptual robustness and operational relevance of the proposed framework, highlighting its ability to provide a precise diagnosis, a coherent strategic orientation and concrete levers of action to accelerate the transformation of the city. The analysis of in situ returns led to a refinement of the model, consolidating its applicability and facilitating its transposability to other urban contexts. This conceptual framework and its strategic toolkit establish an evolutionary dynamic where each disruption becomes a lever for transformation. By reintegrating uncertainty as a driver of adaptation and innovation, they are profoundly reconfiguring urban strategies, providing cities with the means to anticipate, absorb and transcend crises. This approach paves the way for an anti-fragile urbanity, where the unexpected ceases to be a constraint and becomes a vector of sustainable and differentiated growth. |
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