Integrated Climate, Hydrological, and Economic Modelling Dataset for the Douro River Basin [Dataset]
[EN]This paper develops an actionable interdisci-plinary model that quantifies and assesses uncertainties in water resource allocation under climate change. To achieve this objective, we develop an innovative socio-ecological grand ensemble that combines climate, hydrological, and mi-croeconomic ens...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | conjunto de datos |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Salamanca (USAL) |
| Repositorio: | GREDOS. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Salamanca |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:gredos.usal.es:10366/169218 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10366/169218 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Socio-ecological ensemble microeconomic models hydrological models water allocation climate scenarios 5308 Economía General 2508 Hidrología 2502 Climatología |
| Sumario: | [EN]This paper develops an actionable interdisci-plinary model that quantifies and assesses uncertainties in water resource allocation under climate change. To achieve this objective, we develop an innovative socio-ecological grand ensemble that combines climate, hydrological, and mi-croeconomic ensemble experiments with a widely used deci-sion support system for water resource planning and manage-ment. Each system is populated with multiple models (multi-model), which we use to evaluate the impacts of multiple cli-mate scenarios and policies (multi-scenario, multi-forcing) across systems so as to identify plausible futures where wa-ter management policies meet or miss their objectives and to explore potential tipping points. The application of the meth-ods is exemplified by a study conducted in the Douro River basin (DRB), an agricultural basin located in central Spain. Our results show how marginal climate changes can trigger non-linear water allocation changes in the decision support systems (DSSs) and/or non-linear adaptive responses of ir-rigators to water shortages. For example, while some irriga-tors barely experience economic losses (average profit and employment fall by < 0.5 %) under mild water allocation re-ductions of 5 % or lower, profit and employment fall by up to 12 % (∼ 24 ×) when water allocation is reduced by 10 %or less (∼ 2×). This substantiates the relevance of informing the potential natural and socio-economic impacts of adapta-tion strategies and related uncertainties for identifying robust decisions. |
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