Essays in macroeconomics

This thesis consists of three chapters on topics in Macroeconometrics. Chapter 1 develops a hypothesis test to evaluate economic models and their forecasts robust to instabilities. The test is particularly powerful in the presence of multiple breaks and can be applied to in-sample and out-of-sample...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Hoesch, Lukas
Tipo de recurso: tesis doctoral
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:CBUC, CESCA
Repositorio:TDR. Tesis Doctorales en Red
OAI Identifier:oai:www.tdx.cat:10803/672739
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672739
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Macroeconometrics
Macroeconometria
33
Descripción
Sumario:This thesis consists of three chapters on topics in Macroeconometrics. Chapter 1 develops a hypothesis test to evaluate economic models and their forecasts robust to instabilities. The test is particularly powerful in the presence of multiple breaks and can be applied to in-sample and out-of-sample moment conditions. An application to predictability of the U.S. equity premium provides evidence in favour of “predictability pockets”. Chapter 2 investigates the evolution of the Federal Reserve information advantage and the information channel of U.S. monetary policy. It provides evidence that the information channel is historically relevant, but finds substantially weaker evidence of its presence in recent years, once instabilities are accounted for. Chapter 3 develops a semi-parametric approach to conduct inference in non-Gaussian SVAR models robust to “weak” non-Gaussianity. The method exploits non-Gaussianity when it is present, while yielding correct coverage regardless of the distribution of the structural errors. An application revisits U.S. labor supply and demand elasticities and highlights the limitations of using non-Gaussianity for identification.