Consumer and business confidence connectedness in the euro area: a tale of two crises

Purpose: To examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area (EA) with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown. Design/methodology/approach: The authors apply Diebold and Y...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Fernández Pérez, Adrian, Gómez Puig, Marta, Sosvilla Rivero, Simón Javier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/104930
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/104930
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:33
C53
E66
E71
Business confidence
Consumer confidence
Great Financial Crisis
COVID-19
Connectedness
Time-varying parameters
Economía
53 Ciencias Económicas
Descripción
Sumario:Purpose: To examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area (EA) with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC), and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown. Design/methodology/approach: The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model. Findings: The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis. Originality/value: The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.