Forecasting energy demand in quicklime manufacturing: a data-driven approach
This study presents a deep learning-based framework for forecasting energy demand in a quicklime production company, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and enable data-driven decision-making for industrial scalability. Using one year of real electricity consumption data, the methodology integr...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/449464 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/449464 https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s25247632 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Energy consumption prediction Recurrent neural network Deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) Time series forecasting Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Aspectes econòmics |
| Sumario: | This study presents a deep learning-based framework for forecasting energy demand in a quicklime production company, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and enable data-driven decision-making for industrial scalability. Using one year of real electricity consumption data, the methodology integrates temporal and operational variables—such as load profile, active power, shift indicators, and production-related proxies—to capture the dynamics of energy usage throughout the manufacturing process. Several neural network architectures, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Conv1D models, were trained and compared to predict short-term power demand with 10-min resolution. Among these, the GRU model achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with a best performance of RMSE = 2.18 kW, MAE = 0.49 kW, and SMAPE = 3.64% on the test set. The resulting forecasts support cost-efficient scheduling under time-of-use tariffs and provide valuable insights for infrastructure planning, capacity management, and sustainability optimization in energy-intensive industries. |
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