Robust estimation and forecasting for beta-mixed hierarchical models of grouped binary data

The paper focuses on robust estimation and forecasting techniques for grouped binary data with misclassified responses. It is assumed that the data are described by the beta-mixed hierarchical model (the beta-binomial or the beta-logistic), while the misclassifications are caused by the stochastic a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Pashkevich, Maxim A., Kharin, Yurij S.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2004
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2099/3753
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2099/3753
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Inference
Inferència
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62F Parametric inference
Descripción
Sumario:The paper focuses on robust estimation and forecasting techniques for grouped binary data with misclassified responses. It is assumed that the data are described by the beta-mixed hierarchical model (the beta-binomial or the beta-logistic), while the misclassifications are caused by the stochastic additive distortions of binary observations. For these models, the effect of ignoring the misclassifications is evaluated and expressions for the biases of the method-of-moments estimators and maximum likelihood estimators, as well as expressions for the increase in the mean square error of forecasting for the Bayes predictor are given. To compensate the misclassification effects, new consistent estimators and a new Bayes predictor, which take into account the distortion model, are constructed. The robustness of the developed techniques is demonstrated via computer simulations and a real-life case study.