Final Size for Epidemic Models with Asymptomatic Transmission

The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Barril, Carles|||0000-0002-4612-5533, Bliman, Pierre-Alexandre, Cuadrado Gavilán, Sílvia|||0000-0003-2051-2030
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:282877
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/282877
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1007/s11538-023-01159-y
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Final infection size
Symptomatic population
Reproduction number
Descripción
Sumario:The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing this information is relevant because it is related to the severity of the epidemics. The objective of this work is to give a formula for the total number of symptomatic cases throughout an epidemic. Specifically, we focus on different types of structured SIR epidemic models (in which infected individuals can possibly become symptomatic before recovering), and we compute the accumulated number of symptomatic cases when time goes to infinity using a probabilistic approach. The methodology behind the strategy we follow is relatively independent of the details of the model.