Final Size for Epidemic Models with Asymptomatic Transmission
The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing th...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2023 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ddd.uab.cat:282877 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://ddd.uab.cat/record/282877 https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1007/s11538-023-01159-y |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Final infection size Symptomatic population Reproduction number |
| Sumario: | The final infection size is defined as the total number of individuals that become infected throughout an epidemic. Despite its importance for predicting the fraction of the population that will end infected, it does not capture which part of the infected population will present symptoms. Knowing this information is relevant because it is related to the severity of the epidemics. The objective of this work is to give a formula for the total number of symptomatic cases throughout an epidemic. Specifically, we focus on different types of structured SIR epidemic models (in which infected individuals can possibly become symptomatic before recovering), and we compute the accumulated number of symptomatic cases when time goes to infinity using a probabilistic approach. The methodology behind the strategy we follow is relatively independent of the details of the model. |
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