Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy

A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We p...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Capuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/358674
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/358674
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19 (Disease)
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física
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spelling Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in ItalyCapuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260COVID-19 (Disease)COVID-19 (Malaltia)Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::FísicaA careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We propose a parsimonious compartment model based on a time-dependent rate of depletion of the susceptible population that captures all such phases for a plausible range of model parameters. The results suggest an intimate interplay between the growth behavior, the timing and implementation of containment strategies, and the subsequent saturation of the outbreak.Peer ReviewedFrontiers Media SA20202020-11-3020212021-12-16journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/358674https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3586742026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
title Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
spellingShingle Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
Capuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260
COVID-19 (Disease)
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física
title_short Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
title_full Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
title_fullStr Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
title_full_unstemmed Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
title_sort Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Capuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260
author Capuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260
author_facet Capuano, Francesco|||0000-0003-0274-5260
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19 (Disease)
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física
topic COVID-19 (Disease)
COVID-19 (Malaltia)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física
description A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We propose a parsimonious compartment model based on a time-dependent rate of depletion of the susceptible population that captures all such phases for a plausible range of model parameters. The results suggest an intimate interplay between the growth behavior, the timing and implementation of containment strategies, and the subsequent saturation of the outbreak.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
2020-11-30
2021
2021-12-16
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/358674
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/358674
https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media SA
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Frontiers Media SA
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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