Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We p...
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/358674 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/358674 https://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | COVID-19 (Disease) COVID-19 (Malaltia) Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Física |
| Sumario: | A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We propose a parsimonious compartment model based on a time-dependent rate of depletion of the susceptible population that captures all such phases for a plausible range of model parameters. The results suggest an intimate interplay between the growth behavior, the timing and implementation of containment strategies, and the subsequent saturation of the outbreak. |
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