Déficits gêmeos na economia brasileira: uma investigação via modelos de defasagens distribuídas

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality in the twin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impact public accounts or fiscal deficits cause movements in foreign accounts. The econometric methodology applied is related the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed La...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Souza, Túllio Assis
Tipo de recurso: tesis de maestría
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da UFU
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.ufu.br:123456789/13591
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/13591
https://doi.org/10.14393/ufu.di.2015.86
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Déficits gêmeos
Transações correntes
Resultado primário
Modelos ARDL
Deficit financeiro
Déficits orçamentários
Twin deficits
Current account
Primary results
ARDL models
CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
Descripción
Sumario:The aim of this study is to analyze the causality in the twin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impact public accounts or fiscal deficits cause movements in foreign accounts. The econometric methodology applied is related the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models for the quarterly data ranging from 1999:03 to 2013:04. The results show a long-term relationship between the public sector primary surplus and current account and GDP. Regarding the short term, the error correction mechanism indicates causality going from the current account to the primary results. However, the opposite causality cannot be proven