Déficits gêmeos na economia brasileira: uma investigação via modelos de defasagens distribuídas
The aim of this study is to analyze the causality in the twin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impact public accounts or fiscal deficits cause movements in foreign accounts. The econometric methodology applied is related the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed La...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis de maestría |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2015 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (UFU) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional da UFU |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.ufu.br:123456789/13591 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://repositorio.ufu.br/handle/123456789/13591 https://doi.org/10.14393/ufu.di.2015.86 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Déficits gêmeos Transações correntes Resultado primário Modelos ARDL Deficit financeiro Déficits orçamentários Twin deficits Current account Primary results ARDL models CNPQ::CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA |
| Sumario: | The aim of this study is to analyze the causality in the twin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impact public accounts or fiscal deficits cause movements in foreign accounts. The econometric methodology applied is related the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models for the quarterly data ranging from 1999:03 to 2013:04. The results show a long-term relationship between the public sector primary surplus and current account and GDP. Regarding the short term, the error correction mechanism indicates causality going from the current account to the primary results. However, the opposite causality cannot be proven |
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