Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil: Qual a Relação de Causalidade?
This paper aims at analyzing the causality relationships between thetwin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impactpublic accounts, or vice-versa. The econometric methodology applied isrelated to the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag models for thequarterly da...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2018 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
| Repositorio: | Economia Aplicada |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:revistas.usp.br:article/145396 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145396 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Twin Deficits Current Account Primary result ARDL models Déficits Gêmeos Transações Correntes Resultado Primário Modelos ARDL. |
| Sumario: | This paper aims at analyzing the causality relationships between thetwin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impactpublic accounts, or vice-versa. The econometric methodology applied isrelated to the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag models for thequarterly data ranging from 1999 to 2013. The results show a long-termrelationship from current account and GDP to public sector primary sur-plus. Regarding the short term, the error correction mechanism indicates causality going from the current account to the primary results. On theother hand, the opposite causality could not be found. |
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