Déficits Gêmeos no Brasil: Qual a Relação de Causalidade?

This paper aims at analyzing the causality relationships between thetwin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impactpublic accounts, or vice-versa. The econometric methodology applied isrelated to the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag models for thequarterly da...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Souza, Túllio, Silva, Cleomar
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
Repositorio:Economia Aplicada
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:revistas.usp.br:article/145396
Acceso en línea:https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/145396
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Twin Deficits
Current Account
Primary result
ARDL models
Déficits Gêmeos
Transações Correntes
Resultado Primário
Modelos ARDL.
Descripción
Sumario:This paper aims at analyzing the causality relationships between thetwin deficits in Brazil, that is, if either current account movements impactpublic accounts, or vice-versa. The econometric methodology applied isrelated to the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag models for thequarterly data ranging from 1999 to 2013. The results show a long-termrelationship from current account and GDP to public sector primary sur-plus. Regarding the short term, the error correction mechanism indicates causality going from the current account to the primary results. On theother hand, the opposite causality could not be found.