| Summary: | The Wind Rose is the conventional method applied to define the best runway orientation, which is based on a frequentist analysis of probability and on a significant data amount. The method presents questionable precision about results. Hence, this paper aims to provide an alternative method based on the axiomatic definition of probability, which uses the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) in order to achieve the reliability indexes associated to the able runway orientations. The proposed method was developed in ForTran and applied to a case study in order to its evaluation and exemplification. Results showed that the best orientation was similar for both conventional and proposed method, however, the calculated probabilities were significantly different. Finally, this study contributes to the advancement of this probabilistic approach for cases that data cannot be exclusively described by a bivariate normal distribution and when relevant correlations occur between variables.
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