Secondary forecast models. The ENSO example.

"In this note, a procedure to construct predictors is suggested that could take advantage of the increasing predictive skill of ENSO models. These so-called secondary forecast models (SFM) attempt to produce a forecast for a particular object application based on independent forecasts of ENSO....

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Bibliographic Details
Author: Edgar Gerardo Pavía López
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2000
Country:México
Institution:Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada
Repository:Repositorio Institucional CICESE
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:cicese.repositorioinstitucional.mx:1007/1639
Online Access:http://cicese.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1007/1639
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:info:eu-repo/classification/WOS/El-Nino, Rainfall, California, Impacts, Weather
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/1
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/25
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/2510
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/251007
Description
Summary:"In this note, a procedure to construct predictors is suggested that could take advantage of the increasing predictive skill of ENSO models. These so-called secondary forecast models (SFM) attempt to produce a forecast for a particular object application based on independent forecasts of ENSO. Although their predictive skill may be modest, these models can provide an alternate and objective forecast to the entirely subjective schemes more widely used. An example of the application of SFM to the forecast of the seasonal precipitation of a typical station of the Mediterranean Californias shows promising results."