Secondary forecast models. The ENSO example.

"In this note, a procedure to construct predictors is suggested that could take advantage of the increasing predictive skill of ENSO models. These so-called secondary forecast models (SFM) attempt to produce a forecast for a particular object application based on independent forecasts of ENSO....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Edgar Gerardo Pavía López
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2000
País:México
Institución:Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada
Repositorio:Repositorio Institucional CICESE
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:cicese.repositorioinstitucional.mx:1007/1639
Acceso en línea:http://cicese.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1007/1639
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:info:eu-repo/classification/WOS/El-Nino, Rainfall, California, Impacts, Weather
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/1
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/25
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/2510
info:eu-repo/classification/cti/251007
Descripción
Sumario:"In this note, a procedure to construct predictors is suggested that could take advantage of the increasing predictive skill of ENSO models. These so-called secondary forecast models (SFM) attempt to produce a forecast for a particular object application based on independent forecasts of ENSO. Although their predictive skill may be modest, these models can provide an alternate and objective forecast to the entirely subjective schemes more widely used. An example of the application of SFM to the forecast of the seasonal precipitation of a typical station of the Mediterranean Californias shows promising results."