VaR and CVaR estimates in BRIC’s Oil Sector: A Normal Inverse Gaussian Distribution Approach

The Value at Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as measures that estimate risk, have been used in oil sector to measure extreme and unexpected scenarios of oil prices. Additionally, the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution, a special case of the Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) fam...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Sánchez Ruenes, Eduardo, Núñez Mora, José Antonio, Mota Aragón, Martha Beatriz
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:México
Institución:UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA METROPOLITANA
Repositorio:Economía: Teoría y práctica
Idioma:español
inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/448
Acceso en línea:https://economiatyp.uam.mx/index.php/ETYP/article/view/448
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Value at Risk (VaR)
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)
Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution
Oil Equity Returns
BRIC economies
G15
G11
Descripción
Sumario:The Value at Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as measures that estimate risk, have been used in oil sector to measure extreme and unexpected scenarios of oil prices. Additionally, the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution, a special case of the Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) family, has been demonstrated to provide a better fit than Normal distribution to financial data. In this paper, we used NIG distribution to model a distribution of equity price returns in oil companies in Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) economies in periods of unstable oil prices from 2004 to 2017, with the objective of demonstrating an underestimation of the risk measures when a Normal distribution is assumed and a more conservative estimate of those measures when considering a NIG distribution.