The Polls in the Mexican Presidential Election, 2018
This essay intends to take stock of the performance of the presidential elections polls of 2018. In a first section, the relevant sources of information that account for the phenomenon are defined. In a second section the theoretical concepts are reviewed on how the accuracy of the electoral surveys...
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| Format: | article |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication Date: | 2019 |
| Country: | México |
| Institution: | UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO |
| Repository: | Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública |
| Language: | Spanish |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/66376 |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.unam.mx/index.php/rmop/article/view/66376 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Mexico president polls elections accuracy forecast México presidente encuestas elecciones exactitud pronóstico |
| Summary: | This essay intends to take stock of the performance of the presidential elections polls of 2018. In a first section, the relevant sources of information that account for the phenomenon are defined. In a second section the theoretical concepts are reviewed on how the accuracy of the electoral surveys should be measured. In a third section the defects of measurements that do not conform to the orthodox procedures of the field are discovered, with a view to deepen, in the following point, in the performance obtained by the polls on the occasion of the presidential elections of 2018, although leaving in a latter section some aspects that revealed still problematic aspects to explain. Finally, the performance achieved in this year is evaluated in comparison with that observed in other occasions. |
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