The Polls in the Mexican Presidential Election, 2018

This essay intends to take stock of the performance of the presidential elections polls of 2018. In a first section, the relevant sources of information that account for the phenomenon are defined. In a second section the theoretical concepts are reviewed on how the accuracy of the electoral surveys...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: de la Peña Mena, Ricardo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:México
Institución:UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO
Repositorio:Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.pkp.sfu.ca:article/66376
Acceso en línea:https://revistas.unam.mx/index.php/rmop/article/view/66376
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Mexico
president
polls
elections
accuracy
forecast
México
presidente
encuestas
elecciones
exactitud
pronóstico
Descripción
Sumario:This essay intends to take stock of the performance of the presidential elections polls of 2018. In a first section, the relevant sources of information that account for the phenomenon are defined. In a second section the theoretical concepts are reviewed on how the accuracy of the electoral surveys should be measured. In a third section the defects of measurements that do not conform to the orthodox procedures of the field are discovered, with a view to deepen, in the following point, in the performance obtained by the polls on the occasion of the presidential elections of 2018, although leaving in a latter section some aspects that  revealed still problematic aspects to explain. Finally, the performance achieved in this year is evaluated in comparison with that observed in other occasions.