Evaluation of compliance with inflation objectives and the role of expectations: evidence for Mexico, 1995-2012: Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012

After more than a decade of inflation targeting, it is important to evaluate its scope in terms of the inflation objectives set by the central bank in Mexico, and on the role, that inflation expectations have played in this process as a nominal anchor for prices. In particular, we contrast how often...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Vergara-González, Reyna, Gutierrez-Alva, Elías Eduardo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:México
Institución:UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE NUEVO LEÓN
Repositorio:Ensayos Revista de Economía
Idioma:español
OAI Identifier:oai:ensayos.uanl.mx:article/24
Acceso en línea:https://ensayos.uanl.mx/index.php/ensayos/article/view/24
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Monetary Policy
Inflation Targeting
Inflation Expectations
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E31
E59
Política Monetaria
Objetivos de Inflación
Expectativas de Inflación
Descripción
Sumario:After more than a decade of inflation targeting, it is important to evaluate its scope in terms of the inflation objectives set by the central bank in Mexico, and on the role, that inflation expectations have played in this process as a nominal anchor for prices. In particular, we contrast how often the bank deviates from its goal and investigate on the stabilization of inflation expectations in an environment of low and stable inflation, but subject to macroeconomic shocks, which are evaluated using a VAR model. Furthermore, a correlation analysis between inflation expectations and their actual values is performed, based on the Rolling Windows methodology. The results suggest that the degree of association between actual inflation and its expectations has declined over time and the effects of macroeconomic shocks on expectations are less intense during the inflation targeting period.