Tropospheric Ozone Prediction in Mexico City
Two techniques are applied to forecast time series for thehourly ozone measured at Pedregal´s recording station of theAutomatic Network for Environmental Monitoring (RAMA for itsacronym in Spanish) located in the metropolitan area of Mexico City.The techniques have been widely applied since last cen...
| Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | article |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication Date: | 2005 |
| Country: | México |
| Institution: | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México |
| Repository: | Redalyc-UNAM |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:redalyc.org:47549102 |
| Online Access: | https://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=47549102 |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Química Mexico City Ozone measurements autoregresive method embedded space method |
| Summary: | Two techniques are applied to forecast time series for thehourly ozone measured at Pedregal´s recording station of theAutomatic Network for Environmental Monitoring (RAMA for itsacronym in Spanish) located in the metropolitan area of Mexico City.The techniques have been widely applied since last century: theautoregressive (AR) and the method of delays in an embedded space.The predicted values by the autoregressive method are somewhat lessprecise than those forecasted by the embedded space method, as presentedbelow. It is intended to predict the maximum ozone daily concentrationin advance to be able to alert the citizenship or for takingappropriate control measures. In this presentation, the models have asmain limitation to be based only on the ozone time series; morerobust models should take into consideration meteorological variablesto increase precision. If it is roughly considered only the seriesformed by the hourly ozone series from January to May 1999; theseries of daily ozone maxima have an standard deviation of around0.05 ppm of ozone. In the most precise the embedded spacemethod shown at the end of the article, the error standard deviationbetween predicted and real maximum daily ozone data is around0.027 ppm of ozone, which shortens the gap, considering the total ofthe ozone maximum as a normal distribution. |
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