Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)

In basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halti...

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Autores: García Galiano, Sandra Gabriela, Olmos Giménez, Patricia, Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2015
País:España
Institución:Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena(UPCT)
Repositorio:Repositorio Digital UPCT
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.upct.es:10317/13463
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10317/13463
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/10/5458
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:natural hazards
droughts
climate change
nonstationarity
semiarid basin
Spain
Ingeniería Hidráulica
2508 Hidrología
2502 Climatología
2509.04 Hidrometeorología
1209 Estadística
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spelling Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)García Galiano, Sandra GabrielaOlmos Giménez, PatriciaGiraldo Osorio, Juan Diegonatural hazardsdroughtsclimate changenonstationaritysemiarid basinSpainIngeniería Hidráulica2508 Hidrología2502 Climatología2509.04 Hidrometeorología1209 EstadísticaIn basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, whichever the reason is, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regimes. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than five decades (1950−2007), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) models at the grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated with return periods; contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.This work has been developed in the framework of R&D Project CGL2012-39895-C02-01 HYDROCLIM, funded by the State Secretary of Research of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and FEDER funds. The support received from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sport for Mobility Grant of Senior Professors and Researchers (Ref. PRX14/00748), and from Grant No 07.0329/2013/671258/SUB/C1 ASSET project funded by the European Commission, is gratefully acknowledged.MDPIMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadFondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional‏Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y DeporteComisión Europea202420242015info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10317/13463https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/10/5458reponame:Repositorio Digital UPCTinstname:Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena(UPCT)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2012-39895-C02-01info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MECD//PRX14%2F00748info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/DG Environment-WP Program/07.0329%2F2013%2F671258%2FSUB%2FC1CGL2012-39895-C02-01PRX14/0074807.0329/2013/671258/SUB/C1Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.upct.es:10317/134632026-05-15T06:39:02Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
title Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
spellingShingle Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
García Galiano, Sandra Gabriela
natural hazards
droughts
climate change
nonstationarity
semiarid basin
Spain
Ingeniería Hidráulica
2508 Hidrología
2502 Climatología
2509.04 Hidrometeorología
1209 Estadística
title_short Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
title_full Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
title_fullStr Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
title_full_unstemmed Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
title_sort Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv García Galiano, Sandra Gabriela
Olmos Giménez, Patricia
Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego
author García Galiano, Sandra Gabriela
author_facet García Galiano, Sandra Gabriela
Olmos Giménez, Patricia
Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego
author_role author
author2 Olmos Giménez, Patricia
Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional‏
Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte
Comisión Europea
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv natural hazards
droughts
climate change
nonstationarity
semiarid basin
Spain
Ingeniería Hidráulica
2508 Hidrología
2502 Climatología
2509.04 Hidrometeorología
1209 Estadística
topic natural hazards
droughts
climate change
nonstationarity
semiarid basin
Spain
Ingeniería Hidráulica
2508 Hidrología
2502 Climatología
2509.04 Hidrometeorología
1209 Estadística
description In basins of South-eastern Spain; such as the semiarid Segura River Basin (SRB), a strong decrease in runoff from the end of the 1970s has been observed. However, in the SRB the decreasing trend is not only related with climate variability and change, also with intensive reforestation aimed at halting desertification and erosion, whichever the reason is, the default assumption of stationarity in water resources systems cannot be guaranteed. Therefore there is an important need for improvement in the ability of monitoring and predicting the impacts associated with the change of hydrologic regimes. It is thus necessary to apply non-stationary probabilistic models, which are able to reproduce probability density functions whose parameters vary with time. From a high-resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset of more than five decades (1950−2007), the spatial distribution of lengths of maximum dry spells for several thresholds are assessed, applying Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) models at the grid site. Results reveal an intensification of extreme drought events in some headbasins of the SRB important for water supply. The identification of spatial patterns of drought hazards at basin scale, associated with return periods; contribute to designing strategies of drought contingency preparedness and recovery operations, which are the leading edge of adaptation strategies.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10317/13463
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/10/5458
url http://hdl.handle.net/10317/13463
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/7/10/5458
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//CGL2012-39895-C02-01
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MECD//PRX14%2F00748
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/DG Environment-WP Program/07.0329%2F2013%2F671258%2FSUB%2FC1
CGL2012-39895-C02-01
PRX14/00748
07.0329/2013/671258/SUB/C1
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
publisher.none.fl_str_mv MDPI
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Digital UPCT
instname:Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena(UPCT)
instname_str Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena(UPCT)
reponame_str Repositorio Digital UPCT
collection Repositorio Digital UPCT
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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