Essays on Monetary Economics
[eng] This thesis provides research in the area of Monetary Economics. The thesis is divided in three main bodies in which three different but interrelated topics in the field of Monetary Economics are studied. The first subject is external debt, for those unfamiliar with this concept, this is the a...
| Autor: | |
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis doctoral |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/212561 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/212561 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/691383 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Economia monetària Atur Deute exterior Política monetària Inflació Monetary economics Unemployment External debt Monetary policy Inflation |
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Essays on Monetary Economics |
| title |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| spellingShingle |
Essays on Monetary Economics Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel Economia monetària Atur Deute exterior Política monetària Inflació Monetary economics Unemployment External debt Monetary policy Inflation |
| title_short |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| title_full |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| title_fullStr |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| title_sort |
Essays on Monetary Economics |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel |
| author |
Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel |
| author_facet |
Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel |
| author_role |
author |
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Jerbashian, Vahagn Arespa Castelló, Marta Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Economia monetària Atur Deute exterior Política monetària Inflació Monetary economics Unemployment External debt Monetary policy Inflation |
| topic |
Economia monetària Atur Deute exterior Política monetària Inflació Monetary economics Unemployment External debt Monetary policy Inflation |
| description |
[eng] This thesis provides research in the area of Monetary Economics. The thesis is divided in three main bodies in which three different but interrelated topics in the field of Monetary Economics are studied. The first subject is external debt, for those unfamiliar with this concept, this is the accumulation of current account balances (value of exports minus the value of imports) over time. The size of external debt has been a concern for most countries since the beginning of international trade. Whenever a country had a recurrent negative current account over time, it would accumulate into external debt, making the national economy to be indebted with the rest of the world. During the last decades some countries like Spain of the United States of America have amassed huge amounts of said debt as they have incurred in recurrent negative current accounts. The existence of these external debts arises the question, will these indebted countries be able to pay back said debt and regain equilibrium? To find and answer to this question is the objective of the first body of the thesis. In that section I use a Vector Autoregressive Process to estimate the current value of the future current account surpluses and compare it with the current level of external debt. If the current value of the estimated surpluses is higher than the current external debt, the country will have no problem paying back said debt. However, if this is not the case and the current level of the surpluses is smaller than the current level of debt, the country will need to carry on a devaluation of its currencies to regain international competitiveness and increase its future trade surpluses. In the second body of the thesis, I do not abandon the topic of international trade and external debt, but I look at it from different lens. Instead of looking at what is happening in all the world, in this body of the thesis I study what is happening in the Euro Area. The Euro Area is formed by a group of countries sharing the same currency among which there is not any limit to movement of capital, goods or services. Consequently, it is not possible to limit international trade without breaking the rules set in the European Treaties. What is then the effect of the existent external debt over monetary policy? Does the existence of a growing trade imbalance affect the capabilities of the European Central Bank to manage inflation? Does it happen the same in the United States of America? To find an answer to these questions is the objective of the second body of this thesis. In that section I develop a New Keynesian model to extract the effect of the terms of trade on monetary policy through the Taylor rule. I have then estimated the Taylor rule for the Euro Area and the United States of America to see if the terms of trade were significant to explain the behaviour of interest rate. I have found they are significant in the Euro Area but they are not in the USA. In the third body of the thesis, I continue exploring the effect of monetary policy over the Euro Area countries. In this case I do abandon the effect of international trade to focus on the effect of monetary and fiscal policies over inflation in each individual country in the Euro Area and in the Euro Area as a whole. I do so with the estimation of the Phillips Curve for each individual country and for the Euro Area as a unique country. I then compare this estimation with the multi-level/hierarchical estimation of the Phillips Curve where the Euro Area captures the group effect while each country captures the individual effect. |
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2024 |
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2024 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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https://hdl.handle.net/2445/212561 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/691383 |
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https://hdl.handle.net/2445/212561 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/691383 |
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Inglés |
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Inglés |
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(c) Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel, 2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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(c) Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel, 2024 |
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Universitat de Barcelona |
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Universitat de Barcelona |
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Tesis Doctorals - Facultat - Economia i Empresa reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB instname:Universidad de Barcelona |
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Universidad de Barcelona |
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Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
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Essays on Monetary EconomicsNavarro Ortiz, Josep MiquelEconomia monetàriaAturDeute exteriorPolítica monetàriaInflacióMonetary economicsUnemploymentExternal debtMonetary policyInflation[eng] This thesis provides research in the area of Monetary Economics. The thesis is divided in three main bodies in which three different but interrelated topics in the field of Monetary Economics are studied. The first subject is external debt, for those unfamiliar with this concept, this is the accumulation of current account balances (value of exports minus the value of imports) over time. The size of external debt has been a concern for most countries since the beginning of international trade. Whenever a country had a recurrent negative current account over time, it would accumulate into external debt, making the national economy to be indebted with the rest of the world. During the last decades some countries like Spain of the United States of America have amassed huge amounts of said debt as they have incurred in recurrent negative current accounts. The existence of these external debts arises the question, will these indebted countries be able to pay back said debt and regain equilibrium? To find and answer to this question is the objective of the first body of the thesis. In that section I use a Vector Autoregressive Process to estimate the current value of the future current account surpluses and compare it with the current level of external debt. If the current value of the estimated surpluses is higher than the current external debt, the country will have no problem paying back said debt. However, if this is not the case and the current level of the surpluses is smaller than the current level of debt, the country will need to carry on a devaluation of its currencies to regain international competitiveness and increase its future trade surpluses. In the second body of the thesis, I do not abandon the topic of international trade and external debt, but I look at it from different lens. Instead of looking at what is happening in all the world, in this body of the thesis I study what is happening in the Euro Area. The Euro Area is formed by a group of countries sharing the same currency among which there is not any limit to movement of capital, goods or services. Consequently, it is not possible to limit international trade without breaking the rules set in the European Treaties. What is then the effect of the existent external debt over monetary policy? Does the existence of a growing trade imbalance affect the capabilities of the European Central Bank to manage inflation? Does it happen the same in the United States of America? To find an answer to these questions is the objective of the second body of this thesis. In that section I develop a New Keynesian model to extract the effect of the terms of trade on monetary policy through the Taylor rule. I have then estimated the Taylor rule for the Euro Area and the United States of America to see if the terms of trade were significant to explain the behaviour of interest rate. I have found they are significant in the Euro Area but they are not in the USA. In the third body of the thesis, I continue exploring the effect of monetary policy over the Euro Area countries. In this case I do abandon the effect of international trade to focus on the effect of monetary and fiscal policies over inflation in each individual country in the Euro Area and in the Euro Area as a whole. I do so with the estimation of the Phillips Curve for each individual country and for the Euro Area as a unique country. I then compare this estimation with the multi-level/hierarchical estimation of the Phillips Curve where the Euro Area captures the group effect while each country captures the individual effect.[cat] Aquesta tesi se centra en l'àrea de l'Economia Monetària. La tesi es divideix en tres cossos principals en els quals s'estudien tres temes diferents però interrelacionats en el camp de l'Economia Monetària. El primer tema és el deute extern, per als no familiaritzats amb aquest concepte, és l'acumulació de saldos per compte corrent (valor de les exportacions menys el valor de les importacions) al llarg del temps. La dimensió del deute extern ha preocupat la majoria de països des de l'inici del comerç internacional. Sempre que un país tingués un compte corrent negatiu recurrent al llarg del temps, s'acumularia en deute extern, fent que l'economia nacional estigués endeutada amb la resta del món. Durant les últimes dècades, alguns països, com Espanya dels Estats Units d'Amèrica, han acumulat ingents quantitats d'aquest deute, ja que han incorregut en comptes corrents negatius recurrents. L'existència d'aquests deutes externs planteja la pregunta: seran capaços aquests països endeutats de pagar aquest deute i recuperar l'equilibri? Trobar i respondre a aquesta pregunta és l'objectiu del primer cos de la tesi. En aquest apartat utilitzo un procés vectorial autoregressiu per estimar el valor actual dels superàvits futurs per compte corrent i comparar-lo amb el nivell actual de deute extern. Si el valor corrent dels superàvits estimats és superior al deute extern corrent, el país no tindrà cap problema per pagar aquest deute. No obstant això, si no és així, i el nivell actual de superàvit és inferior al nivell de deute actual, el país haurà de dur a terme una devaluació de les divises per recuperar la competitivitat internacional i per augmentar els superàvits comercials futurs. En el segon cos de la tesi, no abandono el tema del comerç internacional i el deute extern, però ho miro des d'una altra òptica. En lloc de mirar el que passa a tot el món, en aquest cos de la tesi estudio el que passa a la zona euro. La zona de l'euro està formada per un grup de països que comparteixen una mateixa moneda entre els quals no hi ha límit al moviment de capitals, de béns o de serveis. En conseqüència, no és possible limitar el comerç internacional sense trencar les regles establertes en els tractats europeus. Quin és, doncs, l'efecte del deute extern existent sobre la política monetària? L'existència d'un creixent desequilibri comercial afecta la capacitat del Banc Central Europeu per gestionar la inflació? Passa el mateix als Estats Units d'Amèrica? Trobar resposta a aquestes preguntes és l'objectiu del segon cos d'aquesta tesi. En aquesta secció desenvolupo un nou model keynesià per extreure l'efecte dels termes de comerç sobre la política monetària a través de la regla de Taylor. Tot seguit, he estimat la regla de Taylor per a la zona de l'euro i els Estats Units d'Amèrica per veure si els termes comercials eren significatius per explicar el comportament dels tipus d'interès. He trobat que són significatius a la zona euro, però no als EUA. En el tercer cos de la tesi, continuo explorant l'efecte de la política monetària sobre els països de la zona euro. En aquest cas, abandono l'efecte del comerç internacional per centrar-me en l'efecte de les polítiques monetàries i fiscals sobre la inflació a cada país, a la zona de l'euro i al conjunt de la zona euro. Ho faig amb l'estimació de la corba de Phillips per a cada país individual i per a la zona euro com a país únic. Tot seguit, comparo aquesta estimació amb l'estimació multinivell/jeràrquica de la corba de Phillips, on la zona de l'euro captura l'efecte grupal, mentre que cada país captura l'efecte individual.Universitat de BarcelonaJerbashian, VahagnArespa Castelló, MartaUniversitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa2024info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesisinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/212561http://hdl.handle.net/10803/691383Tesis Doctorals - Facultat - Economia i Empresareponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglés(c) Navarro Ortiz, Josep Miquel, 2024info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/2125612026-05-27T06:46:51Z |
| score |
15.81155 |