Essays on Monetary Economics
[eng] This thesis provides research in the area of Monetary Economics. The thesis is divided in three main bodies in which three different but interrelated topics in the field of Monetary Economics are studied. The first subject is external debt, for those unfamiliar with this concept, this is the a...
| Autor: | |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | tesis doctoral |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Barcelona |
| Repositorio: | Dipòsit Digital de la UB |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/212561 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2445/212561 http://hdl.handle.net/10803/691383 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Economia monetària Atur Deute exterior Política monetària Inflació Monetary economics Unemployment External debt Monetary policy Inflation |
| Sumario: | [eng] This thesis provides research in the area of Monetary Economics. The thesis is divided in three main bodies in which three different but interrelated topics in the field of Monetary Economics are studied. The first subject is external debt, for those unfamiliar with this concept, this is the accumulation of current account balances (value of exports minus the value of imports) over time. The size of external debt has been a concern for most countries since the beginning of international trade. Whenever a country had a recurrent negative current account over time, it would accumulate into external debt, making the national economy to be indebted with the rest of the world. During the last decades some countries like Spain of the United States of America have amassed huge amounts of said debt as they have incurred in recurrent negative current accounts. The existence of these external debts arises the question, will these indebted countries be able to pay back said debt and regain equilibrium? To find and answer to this question is the objective of the first body of the thesis. In that section I use a Vector Autoregressive Process to estimate the current value of the future current account surpluses and compare it with the current level of external debt. If the current value of the estimated surpluses is higher than the current external debt, the country will have no problem paying back said debt. However, if this is not the case and the current level of the surpluses is smaller than the current level of debt, the country will need to carry on a devaluation of its currencies to regain international competitiveness and increase its future trade surpluses. In the second body of the thesis, I do not abandon the topic of international trade and external debt, but I look at it from different lens. Instead of looking at what is happening in all the world, in this body of the thesis I study what is happening in the Euro Area. The Euro Area is formed by a group of countries sharing the same currency among which there is not any limit to movement of capital, goods or services. Consequently, it is not possible to limit international trade without breaking the rules set in the European Treaties. What is then the effect of the existent external debt over monetary policy? Does the existence of a growing trade imbalance affect the capabilities of the European Central Bank to manage inflation? Does it happen the same in the United States of America? To find an answer to these questions is the objective of the second body of this thesis. In that section I develop a New Keynesian model to extract the effect of the terms of trade on monetary policy through the Taylor rule. I have then estimated the Taylor rule for the Euro Area and the United States of America to see if the terms of trade were significant to explain the behaviour of interest rate. I have found they are significant in the Euro Area but they are not in the USA. In the third body of the thesis, I continue exploring the effect of monetary policy over the Euro Area countries. In this case I do abandon the effect of international trade to focus on the effect of monetary and fiscal policies over inflation in each individual country in the Euro Area and in the Euro Area as a whole. I do so with the estimation of the Phillips Curve for each individual country and for the Euro Area as a unique country. I then compare this estimation with the multi-level/hierarchical estimation of the Phillips Curve where the Euro Area captures the group effect while each country captures the individual effect. |
|---|