Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate

A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern...

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Authors: García-Serrano, Javier, Frankignoul, C., King, M.P., Arribas, A., Gao, Y., Guemas, Virginie, Matei, D., Msadek, R., Park, W., Sanchez-Gomenez, E.
Format: article
Publication Date:2017
Country:España
Institution:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repository:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Language:English
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/111363
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Climate science
Sea ice
Atmospheric circulation
Arctic sea ice variability
NAO/AO pattern
Atmospheric teleconnection
Clima--Observacions
Circulació atmosfèrica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
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oai_identifier_str oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/111363
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network_name_str España
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
title Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
spellingShingle Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
García-Serrano, Javier
Climate science
Sea ice
Atmospheric circulation
Arctic sea ice variability
NAO/AO pattern
Atmospheric teleconnection
Clima--Observacions
Circulació atmosfèrica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
title_short Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
title_full Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
title_fullStr Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
title_full_unstemmed Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
title_sort Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv García-Serrano, Javier
Frankignoul, C.
King, M.P.
Arribas, A.
Gao, Y.
Guemas, Virginie
Matei, D.
Msadek, R.
Park, W.
Sanchez-Gomenez, E.
author García-Serrano, Javier
author_facet García-Serrano, Javier
Frankignoul, C.
King, M.P.
Arribas, A.
Gao, Y.
Guemas, Virginie
Matei, D.
Msadek, R.
Park, W.
Sanchez-Gomenez, E.
author_role author
author2 Frankignoul, C.
King, M.P.
Arribas, A.
Gao, Y.
Guemas, Virginie
Matei, D.
Msadek, R.
Park, W.
Sanchez-Gomenez, E.
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate science
Sea ice
Atmospheric circulation
Arctic sea ice variability
NAO/AO pattern
Atmospheric teleconnection
Clima--Observacions
Circulació atmosfèrica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
topic Climate science
Sea ice
Atmospheric circulation
Arctic sea ice variability
NAO/AO pattern
Atmospheric teleconnection
Clima--Observacions
Circulació atmosfèrica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
description A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and parameterizations, which could lead to misleading conclusions elsewhere if a multi-model ensemble-mean approach is adopted. It might also represent an important source of uncertainty in climate prediction and projection. Modelling efforts are hence further required to improve representation of the background atmospheric circulation and reduce biases, in order to attain more accurate covariability.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2017
2017-10-01
2017
2017-11-30
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 655339 Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic
European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102 Seventh Framework Programme 308299 North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic%2FEuropean sector related to North Atlantic%2FArctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
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spelling Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climateGarcía-Serrano, JavierFrankignoul, C.King, M.P.Arribas, A.Gao, Y.Guemas, VirginieMatei, D.Msadek, R.Park, W.Sanchez-Gomenez, E.Climate scienceSea iceAtmospheric circulationArctic sea ice variabilityNAO/AO patternAtmospheric teleconnectionClima--ObservacionsCirculació atmosfèricaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::EnergiesA set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and parameterizations, which could lead to misleading conclusions elsewhere if a multi-model ensemble-mean approach is adopted. It might also represent an important source of uncertainty in climate prediction and projection. Modelling efforts are hence further required to improve representation of the background atmospheric circulation and reduce biases, in order to attain more accurate covariability.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement No. 308299 (NACLIM—www.naclim.eu). JG-S was partially supported by the H2020-funded MSCA-IF-EF DPETNA project (GA No. 655339). This work was also supported by the BMBF project CLIMPRE Inter-Dec (FKZ:01LP1609A; DM) and the RCN project KLIMAFORSK InterDec (260393; YG) within the framework of JPI CLIM Belmont-Forum InterDec consortial project. JG-S and MPK thank the 6th Severo Ochoa mobility programme for funding the visit of the latter to BSC-CNS in October 2015. The authors thank Ileana Bladé (UB, Spain) and Lantao Sun (CIRES-NOAA/ESRL, USA) for useful discussions, and Neven S. Fuckar (BSC-CNS) for his help during the review process. Technical support at BSC-CNS (Computational Earth Sciences group) is sincerely acknowledged. The authors are also grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the clarity of the manuscript.Peer ReviewedSpringer20172017-10-0120172017-11-30journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/111363https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 655339 Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North AtlanticEuropean Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011102 Seventh Framework Programme 308299 North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic%2FEuropean sector related to North Atlantic%2FArctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and changeopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/1113632026-05-27T15:37:01Z
score 15,300724

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