Link between autumnal Arctic Sea ice and Northern Hemisphere winter forecast skill

Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo|||0000-0001-5375-0639, Ortega, Pablo, Batté, Lauriane, Smith, Doug, Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine|||0000-0002-3066-6685, Guemas, Virginie, Massonnet, François, Sicardi, Valentina|||0000-0002-5116-2670, Torralba, Veronica, Tourigny, Etienne|||0000-0003-4628-1461, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco|||0000-0002-6622-4280
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/185324
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/185324
https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086753
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Forecasting
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Climatology
Sea ice--Arctic Ocean
Atmospheric circulation
Winter climate predictions
Artic Sea ice
Eurasian climate
Atmospheric teleconnections
Large ensembles
Climatologia
Previsió
Circulació atmosfèrica
Temperatura
Precipitacions (Meteorologia)
MODELS
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Prospectiva, sistèmica i modelització
Descripción
Sumario:Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state‐of‐the‐art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice‐atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems.

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