Quantification of survey expectations by means of symbolic regression via genetic programming to estimate economic growth in central and eastern european economies

Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. This study has a twofold aim. First, it proposes a new method to quantify survey-based expectations by means of symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming. Second, it combines the main SR-generated indicators to estimate the ev...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Claveria, Oscar, Monte Moreno, Enrique|||0000-0002-4907-0494, Torra Porras, Salvador
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/90011
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/90011
https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2015.1136564
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Economic forecasting -- Europe, Eastern
Genetic programming (Computer science)
Economic climate indicators
Evolutionary algorithms
Forecasting
Genetic programming
Symbolic regression
Survey-based expectations
Tendency surveys
Qualitative survey data
Carlson-parkin method
Business survey data
Quantifying survey expectations
Level survey data
Inflation-expectations
Macroeconomic forecasts
Price expectations
Financial crisis
Consumer surveys
Previsió econòmica -- Europa de l'Est
Programació genètica (Informàtica)
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Macroeconomia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Programació
Descripción
Sumario:Tendency surveys are the main source of agents' expectations. This study has a twofold aim. First, it proposes a new method to quantify survey-based expectations by means of symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming. Second, it combines the main SR-generated indicators to estimate the evolution of GDP, obtaining the best results for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Finally, it assesses the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, finding that the capacity of agents' expectations to anticipate economic growth in most Central and Eastern European economies improved after the crisis.

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