Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression
Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/101084 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/101084 https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2016.1218419 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Financial crisis Economic forecasting Genetic algorithms Symbolic regression Evolutionary algorithms Genetic programming Tendency surveys Expectations Forecasting Crisis financeres Previsió econòmica Algorismes genètics Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Macroeconomia::Finances |
| Sumario: | Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany. |
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