At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience

The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very i...

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Autores: Castillo Manzano, José I., López Valpuesta, Lourdes, Pozo Barajas, Rafael del
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/94630
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/94630
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Election polls
Insurgent parties
Inaccuracy
Spain
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spelling At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experienceCastillo Manzano, José I.López Valpuesta, LourdesPozo Barajas, Rafael delElection pollsInsurgent partiesInaccuracySpainThe main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties.El principal objetivo de este artículo es explicar por qué las encuestas electorales cometen más errores en épocas de crisis económica, inestabilidad política y con partidos emergentes como Podemos y Ciudadanos. Para ello utilizamos una base de datos de 226 encuestas previas a las elecciones generales españolas de 2016. En este contexto, paradójicamente vemos como el instrumento que la sociedad utiliza para reducir su incertidumbre puede acabar aumentándola. Nuestros resultados muestran como el error de predicción de los nuevos partidos es significativamente mayor que los tradicionales e insensible a las soluciones clásicas para aumentar la precisión de las encuestas, como el tamaño de la muestra, el método de muestreo, la experiencia del encuestador, o la proximidad de la cita electoral. Además, se observa que las empresas que desarrollan las encuestas realizan de forma sistemática predicciones muy próximas a las que han realizado las encuestas recientes de sus competidores. Finalmente, el sesgo editorial parece ser una variable relevante, especialmente en lo relativo a las predicciones de los partidos tradicionalesUniversidad de Zaragoza: Departamento de Estructura e Historia Económicas y Economía PúblicaAnálisis Económico y Economía PolíticaEconomía Financiera y Dirección de Operaciones2018info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/11441/94630reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevillainstname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)InglésRevista de economía aplicada, 26 (78), 81-97.https://www.revecap.alde.es/revista/numeros/78/pdf/REVECAP-78-(4).pdfinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:idus.us.es:11441/946302026-06-17T12:51:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
title At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
spellingShingle At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
Castillo Manzano, José I.
Election polls
Insurgent parties
Inaccuracy
Spain
title_short At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
title_full At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
title_fullStr At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
title_full_unstemmed At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
title_sort At a time of insurgent parties, can societies believe in election polls?. The Spanish experience
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Castillo Manzano, José I.
López Valpuesta, Lourdes
Pozo Barajas, Rafael del
author Castillo Manzano, José I.
author_facet Castillo Manzano, José I.
López Valpuesta, Lourdes
Pozo Barajas, Rafael del
author_role author
author2 López Valpuesta, Lourdes
Pozo Barajas, Rafael del
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Análisis Económico y Economía Política
Economía Financiera y Dirección de Operaciones
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Election polls
Insurgent parties
Inaccuracy
Spain
topic Election polls
Insurgent parties
Inaccuracy
Spain
description The main purpose of this paper is to use the Spanish case, through an econometric analysis of 226 electoral polls, to explain why polls are making more mistakes in times of great socioeconomic slumps, political instability and the emergence of new political parties. In this context, it is the very instrument with which society tries to reduce the reigning uncertainty that, paradoxically, can ultimately drive uncertainty up. Our results show that the prediction error for the new emerging parties is significantly higher than for the traditional parties and this error is not sensitive to solutions for increasing the reliability of surveys, such as increasing sample size, transparency constantly conducting periodical surveys, the closeness of the approaching election or the survey mode that is used. It can be observed that pollsters do not want to make predictions that vary greatly from the average of the other polls. Finally, editorial bias appears to play a significant role, especially in the case of traditional parties.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/11441/94630
url https://hdl.handle.net/11441/94630
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Revista de economía aplicada, 26 (78), 81-97.
https://www.revecap.alde.es/revista/numeros/78/pdf/REVECAP-78-(4).pdf
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Zaragoza: Departamento de Estructura e Historia Económicas y Economía Pública
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad de Zaragoza: Departamento de Estructura e Historia Económicas y Economía Pública
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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