Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes

Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically des...

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Autores: Harrison, Paula A., Harmáčková, Zuzana V., Karabulut, Armağan Aloe, Brotons, Lluís, Cantele, Matthew, Claudet, Joachim, Dunford, Robert W., Guisan, Antoine, Holman, Ian P., Jacobs, Sander, Kok, Kasper, Lobanova, Anastasia, Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra, Pedde, Simona, Rixen, Christian, Santos-Martín, Fernando, Schlaepfer, Martin A., Solidoro, Cosimo, Sonrel, Anthony, Hauck, Jennifer
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
Repositorio:Repositori Obert UdL
OAI Identifier:oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/464309
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/464309
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Biodiversity
Drivers
Ecosystem services
Exploratory scenarios
Impacts
PBES
Models
Nature
Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)
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spelling Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypesHarrison, Paula A.Harmáčková, Zuzana V.Karabulut, Armağan AloeBrotons, LluísCantele, MatthewClaudet, JoachimDunford, Robert W.Guisan, AntoineHolman, Ian P.Jacobs, SanderKok, KasperLobanova, AnastasiaMorán-Ordóñez, AlejandraPedde, SimonaRixen, ChristianSantos-Martín, FernandoSchlaepfer, Martin A.Solidoro, CosimoSonrel, AnthonyHauck, JenniferBiodiversityDriversEcosystem servicesExploratory scenariosImpactsPBESModelsNatureNature’s contributions to people (NCP)Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.The authors are grateful to the IPBES Europe and Central Asia Expert Group and Technical Support Unit for all their input, support, and collaboration over the past three years. Paula Harrison and Ian Holman acknowledge financial support from the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the EUfunded IMPRESSIONS project (Grant Agreement 603416). Martin Schlaepfer received support from ENVIROSPACE, University of Geneva. Antoine Guisan acknowledges additional funding from the University of Lausanne to support Anthony Sonrel's contribution to the assessmentThe Resilience Alliance2019info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/464309reponame:Repositori Obert UdL instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)InglésReproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227Ecology and Society, 2019, vol. 29, núm. 2info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603416cc-by (c) The Authors, 2019Attribution 4.0 Internationalinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/oai:repositori.udl.cat:10459.1/4643092026-06-24T12:42:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
title Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
spellingShingle Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
Harrison, Paula A.
Biodiversity
Drivers
Ecosystem services
Exploratory scenarios
Impacts
PBES
Models
Nature
Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)
title_short Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
title_full Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
title_fullStr Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
title_full_unstemmed Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
title_sort Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Harrison, Paula A.
Harmáčková, Zuzana V.
Karabulut, Armağan Aloe
Brotons, Lluís
Cantele, Matthew
Claudet, Joachim
Dunford, Robert W.
Guisan, Antoine
Holman, Ian P.
Jacobs, Sander
Kok, Kasper
Lobanova, Anastasia
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Pedde, Simona
Rixen, Christian
Santos-Martín, Fernando
Schlaepfer, Martin A.
Solidoro, Cosimo
Sonrel, Anthony
Hauck, Jennifer
author Harrison, Paula A.
author_facet Harrison, Paula A.
Harmáčková, Zuzana V.
Karabulut, Armağan Aloe
Brotons, Lluís
Cantele, Matthew
Claudet, Joachim
Dunford, Robert W.
Guisan, Antoine
Holman, Ian P.
Jacobs, Sander
Kok, Kasper
Lobanova, Anastasia
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Pedde, Simona
Rixen, Christian
Santos-Martín, Fernando
Schlaepfer, Martin A.
Solidoro, Cosimo
Sonrel, Anthony
Hauck, Jennifer
author_role author
author2 Harmáčková, Zuzana V.
Karabulut, Armağan Aloe
Brotons, Lluís
Cantele, Matthew
Claudet, Joachim
Dunford, Robert W.
Guisan, Antoine
Holman, Ian P.
Jacobs, Sander
Kok, Kasper
Lobanova, Anastasia
Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra
Pedde, Simona
Rixen, Christian
Santos-Martín, Fernando
Schlaepfer, Martin A.
Solidoro, Cosimo
Sonrel, Anthony
Hauck, Jennifer
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Biodiversity
Drivers
Ecosystem services
Exploratory scenarios
Impacts
PBES
Models
Nature
Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)
topic Biodiversity
Drivers
Ecosystem services
Exploratory scenarios
Impacts
PBES
Models
Nature
Nature’s contributions to people (NCP)
description Scenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating tradeoffs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/464309
url https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
https://hdl.handle.net/10459.1/464309
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10818-240227
Ecology and Society, 2019, vol. 29, núm. 2
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603416
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) The Authors, 2019
Attribution 4.0 International
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) The Authors, 2019
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Resilience Alliance
publisher.none.fl_str_mv The Resilience Alliance
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositori Obert UdL
instname:Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
instname_str Universitat de Lleida (UdL)
reponame_str Repositori Obert UdL
collection Repositori Obert UdL
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,81155

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