Estudio de la probabilidad de rotura de tuberías en abastecimientos urbanos con la ayuda de modelos estadísticos e hidráulicos. Estrategias de renovación de activos
The integrated and sustainable management of water resources is a task that has become more important in recent decades due to the exponential increase of the worldwide population, the effects caused by climate change and the shortage of fresh water. To accomplish an efficient water management is co...
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| Formato: | tesis de maestría |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2017 |
| País: | España |
| Recursos: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositorio: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/86109 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/86109 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Statistical models Hydraulic models Leaks Operating pressure Breakage probability Probabilidad de rotura Modelos estadísticos Modelos hidráulicos Fugas Presión de servicio Predicció de ruptures Models hidràulics Models estadístics Fallades Pressió de servici INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA Máster Universitario en Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente-Màster Universitari en Enginyeria Hidràulica i Medi Ambient |
| Resumo: | The integrated and sustainable management of water resources is a task that has become more important in recent decades due to the exponential increase of the worldwide population, the effects caused by climate change and the shortage of fresh water. To accomplish an efficient water management is complicated for the companies responsible for distributing the resource due to the number of factors that must be considered in the processes of collection, purification and distribution of the resource. The control and reduction of leaks in the supply networks is one of the most efficient strategies implemented today to achieve an effective management of the volume of water injected into the network and delivered to users. Mainly, it must be considered that most of the elements of a distribution networks are in a state of deterioration due to aging, which in many cases leads to the appearance of leakage or pipe breaks. These ones may prevent the fulfillment of the service conditions that must be guaranteed to users, such as an adequate pressure of service and the water quality. Additionally, depending on the breaks importance, major consequences could happen such as floods and damage to adjacent structures. The main objective of the present Master thesis is to develop a methodology that allows describing and determining the trend followed by the appearance of breaks in supply networks, in order to improve the management of assets on such systems. Selected case studies correspond to water supply system of Algemesí and two areas of the distribution system of the city of Valencia, specifically Jesus (9-A) and Nazareth (11 C) sectors. Each one of these, are managed by the company Aguas de Valencia S.A. Initially the information collected by the company during the resolution of incidents has been analyzed and refined to have a clear and well-structured database. Subsequently, a statistical analysis of the register of the breaks that have been registered in the city of Valencia was done, to determine the existence of outliers within the database and determine the factors that are significant or influential in the occurrence of such phenomena, obtaining as a significant variable pipe material type. Then, the prediction model implemented by Shamir and Howard (1979) was implemented, This model states that the growth of the rate of failure of assets depending on their age, occurs exponentially. This analysis has been applied to pipes of asbestos cement, ductile cast iron, grey cast iron and polyethylene, which are the most abundant materials in the systems studied types. Looking to improve the extent and quality of data bases used by the management company, data collection form has been created to the collection of information during the resolution of incidents, based on the variables considered by some probabilistic models and failure prediction model consulted in the literature review, as in the variables that must be registered according to the standard ISO/FDIS 24516 "Guidelines for the management of assets in drinking water systems and water waste". On the other hand, in order to study the influence of the variation of pressure in the appearance of breaks and determine the hydraulic reliability of the network elements, hydraulic models have been developed. The use of this models allowed to analyze through simulations, the behavior of the system in more detail. As a result, a methodology that allows the evaluation of assets¿ importance, based on factors such as the maximum flow of transported and the number of failures that can occur in such pipes has been developed, facilitating in this way the decision-making and the establishment a plan for renewal and replacement of assets. |
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