Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the rel...

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Autores: Anstey, James A., Simpson, Isla R., Richter, Jadwiga H., Naoe, Hiroaki, Taguchi, Masakazu, Bellprat, Omar|||0000-0001-6434-1793
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/350224
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Stratospheric circulation
Teleconnections (Climatology)
North Atlantic oscillation
Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models
North Atlantic Oscillation
Polar vortex
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Seasonal forecasting
Stratosphere
Stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Teleconnection
Estratosfera
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
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repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
title Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
spellingShingle Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
Anstey, James A.
Stratospheric circulation
Teleconnections (Climatology)
North Atlantic oscillation
Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models
North Atlantic Oscillation
Polar vortex
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Seasonal forecasting
Stratosphere
Stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Teleconnection
Estratosfera
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
title_full Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
title_fullStr Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
title_full_unstemmed Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
title_sort Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Anstey, James A.
Simpson, Isla R.
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Naoe, Hiroaki
Taguchi, Masakazu
Bellprat, Omar|||0000-0001-6434-1793
author Anstey, James A.
author_facet Anstey, James A.
Simpson, Isla R.
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Naoe, Hiroaki
Taguchi, Masakazu
Bellprat, Omar|||0000-0001-6434-1793
author_role author
author2 Simpson, Isla R.
Richter, Jadwiga H.
Naoe, Hiroaki
Taguchi, Masakazu
Bellprat, Omar|||0000-0001-6434-1793
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Stratospheric circulation
Teleconnections (Climatology)
North Atlantic oscillation
Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models
North Atlantic Oscillation
Polar vortex
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Seasonal forecasting
Stratosphere
Stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Teleconnection
Estratosfera
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Stratospheric circulation
Teleconnections (Climatology)
North Atlantic oscillation
Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models
North Atlantic Oscillation
Polar vortex
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Seasonal forecasting
Stratosphere
Stratosphere–troposphere coupling
Teleconnection
Estratosfera
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-01-01
2021
2021-07-28
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
Attribution 3.0 Spain
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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spelling Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving modelsAnstey, James A.Simpson, Isla R.Richter, Jadwiga H.Naoe, HiroakiTaguchi, MasakazuBellprat, Omar|||0000-0001-6434-1793Stratospheric circulationTeleconnections (Climatology)North Atlantic oscillationAtmospheric circulation--Mathematical modelsNorth Atlantic OscillationPolar vortexQuasi-Biennial OscillationSeasonal forecastingStratosphereStratosphere–troposphere couplingTeleconnectionEstratosferaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaThe Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet.We acknowledge the UK's Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) for hosting the QBOi data archive. This work was supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. NB was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Programme funded by BEIS and Defra. SO and LG were supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006779/1, NE/N018001/1). FL and SO were supported by the JPI-Climate/Belmont Forum 423 project GOTHAM (ANR-15-JCLI-0004-01, NERC NE/P006779/1). CC and FS were supported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, funded by the EU and implemented by ECMWF. HN was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and by Grant-in-Aid (JP18K03748, JP20H05171) for Science Research (KAKENHI) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. For the EMAC simulations, PB, TK, and SV acknowledge support by the state of Baden-Württemberg through bwHPC. YK was supported by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (grant nos. JP15KK0178, JP17K18816, JP18H01286 and 19H05702) and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20192004) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. YK and KH were supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) through its sponsorship of research at the International Pacific Research Center. SW and YK were partly supported by the “Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU program)” from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. The Earth Simulator was used for MIROC-ESM and MIROC-AGCM-LL simulations. We acknowledge the scientific guidance of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) for helping motivate this work, coordinated under the framework of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi) led by JA, NB, KH and SO.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 29 autors/es: James A. Anstey, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Hiroaki Naoe, Masakazu Taguchi, Federico Serva, Lesley J. Gray, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Scott Osprey, Omar Bellprat, Peter Braesicke, Andrew C. Bushell, Chiara Cagnazzo, Chih-Chieh Chen, Hye-Yeong Chun, Rolando R. Garcia, Laura Holt, Yoshio Kawatani, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Young-Ha Kim, Francois Lott, Charles McLandress, John Scinocca, Timothy N. Stockdale, Stefan Versick, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, Seiji Yukimoto"Wiley20212021-01-0120212021-07-28journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution 3.0 Spainhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/Attribution 3.0 Spainhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3502242026-05-27T15:37:01Z
score 15,300719

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