Teleconnections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving models
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the rel...
| Autores: | , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/350224 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/350224 https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.4048 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Stratospheric circulation Teleconnections (Climatology) North Atlantic oscillation Atmospheric circulation--Mathematical models North Atlantic Oscillation Polar vortex Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Seasonal forecasting Stratosphere Stratosphere–troposphere coupling Teleconnection Estratosfera Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia |
| Sumario: | The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi-model ensemble of QBO-resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter, the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific-sector subtropical jet. |
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