Interpretation of dam deformation and leakage with boosted regression trees
Predictive models are essential in dam safety assessment. They have been traditionally based on simple statistical tools such as the hydrostatic-season-time (HST) model. These tools are well known to have limitations in terms of accuracy and reliability. In the recent years, the examples of applicat...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/87614 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/87614 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2016.04.012 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Dam safety Machine learning Dam monitoring Boosted regression trees Preses (Enginyeria) -- Mesures de seguretat Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Embassaments i preses |
| Sumario: | Predictive models are essential in dam safety assessment. They have been traditionally based on simple statistical tools such as the hydrostatic-season-time (HST) model. These tools are well known to have limitations in terms of accuracy and reliability. In the recent years, the examples of application of machine learning and related techniques are becoming more frequent as an alternative to HST. While they proved to feature higher flexibility and prediction accuracy, they are also more difficult to interpret. As a consequence, the vast majority of the research is limited to prediction accuracy estimation. In this work, one of the most popular machine learning techniques (boosted regression trees), was applied to model 8 radial displacements and 4 leakage flows at La Baells Dam. The possibilities of model interpretation were explored: the relative influence of each predictor was computed, and the partial dependence plots were obtained. Both results were analysed to draw conclusions on dam response to environmental variables, and its evolution over time. The results show that this technique can efficiently identify dam performance changes with higher flexibility and reliability than simple regression models. |
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