Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters
This paper examines the predictive power of the main default-risk measures used by both academics and practitioners, including accounting measures, market-price-based measures and the credit rating. Given that some measures are unavailable for some firm types, pair wise comparisons are made between...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad Pública de Navarra |
| Repositorio: | Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/39435 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2454/39435 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Credit-risk measures Default prediction Hard to value stocks |
| Sumario: | This paper examines the predictive power of the main default-risk measures used by both academics and practitioners, including accounting measures, market-price-based measures and the credit rating. Given that some measures are unavailable for some firm types, pair wise comparisons are made between the various measures, using same-size samples in every case. The results show the superiority of market-based measures, although their accuracy depends on the prediction horizon and the type of default events considered. Furthermore, examination shows that the effect of within-sample firm characteristics varies across measures. The overall finding is of poorer goodness of fit for accurate default prediction in samples characterised by high book-to-market ratios and/or high asset intangibility, both of which suggest pricing difficulty. In the case of large-firm samples, goodness of fit is in general negatively related to size, possibly because of the 'too-big-to-fail' effect. |
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