Lagged accuracy in credit-risk measures

This paper analyzes the magnitude (accuracy) and length (time) of the lag in the incorporation of new information in different measures of credit risk. The results, for US firms, show a lag for Altman’s Z accounting measure and credit rating. In contrast, market-based credit-risk measures such as CD...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel, González Urteaga, Ana, Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando, Sánchez Alegría, Santiago
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad Pública de Navarra
Repositorio:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
OAI Identifier:oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/42980
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2454/42980
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Accruals
Accuracy
CDS informativeness
Credit-risk measures
Hard-to-value stocks
Lag
Descripción
Sumario:This paper analyzes the magnitude (accuracy) and length (time) of the lag in the incorporation of new information in different measures of credit risk. The results, for US firms, show a lag for Altman’s Z accounting measure and credit rating. In contrast, market-based credit-risk measures such as CDSs and the Black-Scholes-Merton model show no lag. This paper also analyzes the determinants of the lags found showing the importance of the informativeness of CDSs in reducing the lag for all types of default events, and a negative relationship between accounting manipulation and the lag of Altman’s Z for severe default events.