Análisis y pronóstico del precio de la vivienda en España: modelo econométrico desde una perspectiva conductual
The present paper develops an econometric model of the real estate cycle, focused on the analysis of the residential market in Spain, and aims to predict the future evolution of the average and fundamental prices of the housing industry. Unlike traditional models, the Econometric Model developed inc...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2015 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/78189 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/78189 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Real estate investement Residential Real Estate Prices Behavioural Finance Econometric Model Real Estate Cycle Forecast Real Estate Investment. Inversions immobiliàries Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Edificació::Aspectes econòmics Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Edificació::Indústria de la construcció::Promotors immobiliaris |
| Sumario: | The present paper develops an econometric model of the real estate cycle, focused on the analysis of the residential market in Spain, and aims to predict the future evolution of the average and fundamental prices of the housing industry. Unlike traditional models, the Econometric Model developed incorporates not only an extrinsic and intrinsic approach, but also analytical assumptions and criteria inherited from the Behavioral School. Contrasting the Modern Financial School theory, the Behavioral Finance School assumes the presence of irrational investors in the market. Thereby irrational decisions substantially influence, in a persistent way, whether underestimating or overesti mating, the evolution of asset prices. This irrational influence is the fundamental basis of both expansive and depressive phases that shape the real estate cycle. |
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