Stochastic epidemic models: new behavioral indicators of the disease spreading

The purpose of this paper is to propose new indicators of the dynamics of infectious disease spread in stochastic epidemic models, including both global system-oriented descriptors (e.g. the final size measured as the number of individuals infected on a least one occasion during an outbreak) and ind...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Artalejo Rodríguez, Jesús Manuel, López Herrero, María Jesús
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/101971
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/101971
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:616-036.22
519.216
519.217
Epidemiology
Stochastic model
Markov chain
Behavioral indicators
Salud pública (Medicina)
Procesos estocásticos
Estadística
3202 Epidemiología
1208.08 Procesos Estocásticos
1208.06 Procesos de Markov
Descripción
Sumario:The purpose of this paper is to propose new indicators of the dynamics of infectious disease spread in stochastic epidemic models, including both global system-oriented descriptors (e.g. the final size measured as the number of individuals infected on a least one occasion during an outbreak) and individual-oriented descriptors (e.g. the time to reach an individual run of infections). We focus on birth-and-death models and the basic SIR epidemic model but the methodology remains valid for other nonlinear stochastic epidemic models. The theory is illustrated by numerical experiments which demonstrate that the proposed behavioral indicators can be applied efficiently