Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms

Climate change can induce shifts in species ranges. Of special interest are range shifts in regions with a conflict of interest between land use and the conservation of threatened species. Here we focus on the 94 threatened terrestrial vertebrates occurring in the Madrid region (Central Spain) and m...

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Authors: Aragón Carrera, Pedro, Rodríguez, Miguel A., Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel, Lobo, Jorge M.
Format: article
Publication Date:2010
Country:España
Institution:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repository:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/30812
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/30812
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Climate change
Conservation biogeography
Ectothermic vertebrates
Predictive models
Range shifts
Iberian Peninsula
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spelling Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectothermsAragón Carrera, PedroRodríguez, Miguel A.Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel ÁngelLobo, Jorge M.Climate changeConservation biogeographyEctothermic vertebratesPredictive modelsRange shiftsIberian PeninsulaClimate change can induce shifts in species ranges. Of special interest are range shifts in regions with a conflict of interest between land use and the conservation of threatened species. Here we focus on the 94 threatened terrestrial vertebrates occurring in the Madrid region (Central Spain) and model their distributions using data for the whole peninsular Spain to evaluate which vertebrate groups are likely to be more sensitive to climatic change. First, we generated predictive models to quantify the extent to which species distributions are explained by current climate. We then extrapolated the models temporally to predict the effects of two climate-change scenarios on species distributions. We also examined the impact on a recently proposed reserve relative to other interconnected zones with lower protection status but categorized as Areas of Community Importance by the European Union. The variation explained by climatic predictors was greater in ectotherms. The change in species composition differed between the proposed reserve and the other protected areas. Endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates had different patterns of changes in species composition but those of ectotherms matched with temperature departures predicted by climate change. Our results, together with the limited dispersal capacity of herptiles, suggest that trade-offs between different design criteria accounting for animal group differences are necessary for reserve selection.Financial support was provided to P.A. by the Comunidad de Madrid (GR/AMB/0920/2004) and by an I3P-PC2005L postdoctoral contract, by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2006-03000/BOS to M.Á.R., CGL2006-10196 to J.M.L and AP2005-0636 to M.Á.O.-T.), and by an FP7 Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship (PHYLONICHE) from the European Commission to M.Á.O.-T.Peer reviewedWiley-Blackwell201020102010info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://hdl.handle.net/10261/30812reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Ingléshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2009.00343.xinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/308122026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
title Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
spellingShingle Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
Aragón Carrera, Pedro
Climate change
Conservation biogeography
Ectothermic vertebrates
Predictive models
Range shifts
Iberian Peninsula
title_short Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
title_full Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
title_fullStr Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
title_full_unstemmed Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
title_sort Predicted impact of climate change on threatened terrestrial vertebrates in central Spain highlights differences between endotherms and ectotherms
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aragón Carrera, Pedro
Rodríguez, Miguel A.
Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel
Lobo, Jorge M.
author Aragón Carrera, Pedro
author_facet Aragón Carrera, Pedro
Rodríguez, Miguel A.
Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel
Lobo, Jorge M.
author_role author
author2 Rodríguez, Miguel A.
Olalla-Tárraga, Miguel Ángel
Lobo, Jorge M.
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Climate change
Conservation biogeography
Ectothermic vertebrates
Predictive models
Range shifts
Iberian Peninsula
topic Climate change
Conservation biogeography
Ectothermic vertebrates
Predictive models
Range shifts
Iberian Peninsula
description Climate change can induce shifts in species ranges. Of special interest are range shifts in regions with a conflict of interest between land use and the conservation of threatened species. Here we focus on the 94 threatened terrestrial vertebrates occurring in the Madrid region (Central Spain) and model their distributions using data for the whole peninsular Spain to evaluate which vertebrate groups are likely to be more sensitive to climatic change. First, we generated predictive models to quantify the extent to which species distributions are explained by current climate. We then extrapolated the models temporally to predict the effects of two climate-change scenarios on species distributions. We also examined the impact on a recently proposed reserve relative to other interconnected zones with lower protection status but categorized as Areas of Community Importance by the European Union. The variation explained by climatic predictors was greater in ectotherms. The change in species composition differed between the proposed reserve and the other protected areas. Endothermic and ectothermic vertebrates had different patterns of changes in species composition but those of ectotherms matched with temperature departures predicted by climate change. Our results, together with the limited dispersal capacity of herptiles, suggest that trade-offs between different design criteria accounting for animal group differences are necessary for reserve selection.
publishDate 2010
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2010
2010
2010
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/30812
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/30812
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-1795.2009.00343.x
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Wiley-Blackwell
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,812429

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