Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation

The industry is a crucial actor towards the energy transition with the possibility to adopt new energy strategies including a prosumer model. However, industries are struggling to adopt smart energy approaches, and initiatives supporting them should be improved. To enhance industrial participation i...

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Autores: Urbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964, Martínez Viol, Víctor|||0000-0003-2916-8395, Kampouropoulos, Konstantinos|||0000-0002-1466-6394, Romeral Martínez, José Luis|||0000-0001-8112-8038
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/359954
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/359954
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121943
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Energy development
Energy consumption
energy investment
optimal design
prosumer
uncertainty analysis
sensitivity analysis
Energia -- Desenvolupament
Energia -- Consum
Indústries -- Consum d'energia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia
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spelling Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisationUrbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964Martínez Viol, Víctor|||0000-0003-2916-8395Kampouropoulos, Konstantinos|||0000-0002-1466-6394Romeral Martínez, José Luis|||0000-0001-8112-8038Energy developmentEnergy consumptionenergy investmentoptimal designprosumeruncertainty analysissensitivity analysisEnergia -- DesenvolupamentEnergia -- ConsumIndústries -- Consum d'energiaÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energiaThe industry is a crucial actor towards the energy transition with the possibility to adopt new energy strategies including a prosumer model. However, industries are struggling to adopt smart energy approaches, and initiatives supporting them should be improved. To enhance industrial participation in energy transition, it is required to assess the optimal energy infrastructure considering its economic advantages and associated risks. Up to date, the literature dealing with energy sizing optimisation does not consider the time evolution of parameters or the uncertainty linked to the energy framework. The objective of this paper is to fill this literature gap by proposing a novel complete methodology to optimise the design and operation of the energy infrastructure for its lifetime while assessing its uncertainty and risk through an uncertainty analysis, as well as to identify the inputs causing it by a two-stage sensitivity analysis. This framework is applied to a case study based on a real industrial manufacturing SME. The results indicate that the proposed methodology produces robust results in front of the present uncertainties, being energy price the one that causes most of it and thus the one more attention should be paid to when evaluating energy investment decisions.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::9 - Indústria, Innovació i InfraestructuraObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::7 - Energia Assequible i No Contaminant20212021-09-0120222022-01-19journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/359954https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121943reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3599542026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
title Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
spellingShingle Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
Urbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964
Energy development
Energy consumption
energy investment
optimal design
prosumer
uncertainty analysis
sensitivity analysis
Energia -- Desenvolupament
Energia -- Consum
Indústries -- Consum d'energia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia
title_short Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
title_full Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
title_fullStr Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
title_full_unstemmed Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
title_sort Risk assessment of energy investment in the industrial framework – Uncertainty and Sensitivity analysis for energy design and operation optimisation
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Urbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964
Martínez Viol, Víctor|||0000-0003-2916-8395
Kampouropoulos, Konstantinos|||0000-0002-1466-6394
Romeral Martínez, José Luis|||0000-0001-8112-8038
author Urbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964
author_facet Urbano González, Eva María|||0000-0002-1486-4964
Martínez Viol, Víctor|||0000-0003-2916-8395
Kampouropoulos, Konstantinos|||0000-0002-1466-6394
Romeral Martínez, José Luis|||0000-0001-8112-8038
author_role author
author2 Martínez Viol, Víctor|||0000-0003-2916-8395
Kampouropoulos, Konstantinos|||0000-0002-1466-6394
Romeral Martínez, José Luis|||0000-0001-8112-8038
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Energy development
Energy consumption
energy investment
optimal design
prosumer
uncertainty analysis
sensitivity analysis
Energia -- Desenvolupament
Energia -- Consum
Indústries -- Consum d'energia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia
topic Energy development
Energy consumption
energy investment
optimal design
prosumer
uncertainty analysis
sensitivity analysis
Energia -- Desenvolupament
Energia -- Consum
Indústries -- Consum d'energia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia
description The industry is a crucial actor towards the energy transition with the possibility to adopt new energy strategies including a prosumer model. However, industries are struggling to adopt smart energy approaches, and initiatives supporting them should be improved. To enhance industrial participation in energy transition, it is required to assess the optimal energy infrastructure considering its economic advantages and associated risks. Up to date, the literature dealing with energy sizing optimisation does not consider the time evolution of parameters or the uncertainty linked to the energy framework. The objective of this paper is to fill this literature gap by proposing a novel complete methodology to optimise the design and operation of the energy infrastructure for its lifetime while assessing its uncertainty and risk through an uncertainty analysis, as well as to identify the inputs causing it by a two-stage sensitivity analysis. This framework is applied to a case study based on a real industrial manufacturing SME. The results indicate that the proposed methodology produces robust results in front of the present uncertainties, being energy price the one that causes most of it and thus the one more attention should be paid to when evaluating energy investment decisions.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
2021-09-01
2022
2022-01-19
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/359954
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121943
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/359954
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121943
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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