Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis
This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consum...
| Autores: | , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/88366 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/88366 https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.041 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Transportation -- Energy consumption -- Andorra Automobiles -- Fuel consumption -- Mathematical models Transport Energy demand Andorra Private car fleet Sensitivity analysis Scenario analysis Transport -- Consum d'energia -- Andorra Automòbils -- Consum de combustible -- Models matemàtics Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies::Gestió de l'energia |
| Sumario: | This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies |
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