Forecasting and assessing consequences of aviation safety occurrences

Aviation safety is essential for the healthy growth and sustainability of the global economy. The implementation of Safety Management Systems to support safe service delivery has become one of the most important goals within the airline industry over the last years. However, in most cases the involv...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Rios Insua, David, Alfaro, Cesar, Gomez, Javier, Hernandez-Coronado, Pablo, Bernal, Francisco
Format: article
Publication Date:2019
Country:España
Institution:Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
Repository:BURJC-Digital. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos
OAI Identifier:oai:burjcdigital.urjc.es:10115/42409
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10115/42409
Access Level:Embargoed access
Keyword:Aviation safety
Risk management
Bayesian forecasting
Multiattribute utility
Decision analysis
Description
Summary:Aviation safety is essential for the healthy growth and sustainability of the global economy. The implementation of Safety Management Systems to support safe service delivery has become one of the most important goals within the airline industry over the last years. However, in most cases the involved organisations use unsophisticated methods based on risk matrices for the development of such systems. In this paper, we present models to forecast and assess the consequences of aviation safety occurrences as part of a framework for aviation safety risk management at state level.