Estimating country-specific incidence rates of rare cancers: comparative perfomance analysis of modeling approaches using European cancer registry data

Estimating incidence of rare cancers is challenging for exceptionally rare entities and in small populations. In a previous study, investigators in the Information Network on Rare Cancers (RARECARENet) provided Bayesian estimates of expected numbers of rare cancers and 95% credible intervals for 27...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Salmerón, Diego, Botta, Laura, Martínez, José Miguel, Trama, Annalisa, Gatta, Gemma, Borràs Andrés, Josep Maria, Capocaccia, Ricardo, Clèries Soler, Ramon
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/187901
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/187901
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Càncer
Estimació d'un paràmetre
Epidemiologia
Cancer
Parameter estimation
Epidemiology
Descripción
Sumario:Estimating incidence of rare cancers is challenging for exceptionally rare entities and in small populations. In a previous study, investigators in the Information Network on Rare Cancers (RARECARENet) provided Bayesian estimates of expected numbers of rare cancers and 95% credible intervals for 27 European countries, using data collected by population-based cancer registries. In that study, slightly different results were found by implementing a Poisson model in integrated nested Laplace approximation/WinBUGS platforms. In this study, we assessed the performance of a Poisson modeling approach for estimating rare cancer incidence rates, oscillating around an overall European average and using small-count data in different scenarios/computational platforms. First, we compared the performance of frequentist, empirical Bayes, and Bayesian approaches for providing 95% confidence/credible intervals for the expected rates in each country. Second, we carried out an empirical study using 190 rare cancers to assess different lower/upper bounds of a uniform prior distribution for the standard deviation of the random effects. For obtaining a reliable measure of variability for country-specific incidence rates, our results suggest the suitability of using 1 as the lower bound for that prior distribution and selecting the random-effects model through an averaged indicator derived from 2 Bayesian model selection criteria: the deviance information criterion and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion.