Initialization Methods for Multiple Seasonal Holt-Winters Forecasting Models
[EN] The Holt-Winters models are one of the most popular forecasting algorithms. As well-known, these models are recursive and thus, an initialization value is needed to feed the model, being that a proper initialization of the Holt-Winters models is crucial for obtaining a good accuracy of the pred...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2020 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) |
| Repositorio: | RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/162104 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/162104 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Forecasting Multiple seasonal periods Holt-Winters Initialization ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA |
| Sumario: | [EN] The Holt-Winters models are one of the most popular forecasting algorithms. As well-known, these models are recursive and thus, an initialization value is needed to feed the model, being that a proper initialization of the Holt-Winters models is crucial for obtaining a good accuracy of the predictions. Moreover, the introduction of multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models requires a new development of methods for seed initialization and obtaining initial values. This work proposes new initialization methods based on the adaptation of the traditional methods developed for a single seasonality in order to include multiple seasonalities. Thus, new methods to initialize the level, trend, and seasonality in multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models are presented. These new methods are tested with an application for electricity demand in Spain and analyzed for their impact on the accuracy of forecasts. As a consequence of the analysis carried out, which initialization method to use for the level, trend, and seasonality in multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models with an additive and multiplicative trend is provided. |
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