Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems

[EN] Droughts cause signi¿cant socio-economic and environmental impacts, so it has become an extremely importantelement in decision-making within water resource systems. For this reason, the research in this ¿eld has in-creased considerably over the last few decades. In order to be capable of making...

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Autores: Madrigal-Barrera, José Jaime, Sanchez Quispe, Sonia Tatiana, Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963, Suárez-Almiñana, Sara, Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169, Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín|||0000-0001-5087-5014
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/112722
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/112722
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Drought forecasting
Forecast verification
Contingency table
Jucar river basin
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
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spelling Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systemsMadrigal-Barrera, José JaimeSanchez Quispe, Sonia TatianaSolera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963Suárez-Almiñana, SaraParedes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín|||0000-0001-5087-5014Drought forecastingForecast verificationContingency tableJucar river basinINGENIERIA HIDRAULICA[EN] Droughts cause signi¿cant socio-economic and environmental impacts, so it has become an extremely importantelement in decision-making within water resource systems. For this reason, the research in this ¿eld has in-creased considerably over the last few decades. In order to be capable of making early decisions and reducingdrought impacts, it is necessary to predict the occurrence of such events months or even years in advance. In thissense, various methods have been used to predict the occurrence of droughts. At present, seasonal forecast datacan be used to forecast meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and operational droughts. However, the sea-sonal forecast data of these dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models must be analyzed in an exhaustiveway, since it is known that these models may not adequately represent the climatic variability at river basinscale. Hence, this paper presents a new methodology for assessing the skill of a climate forecasting system inorder to predict the occurrence of droughts by using contingency tables. The indices obtained from the con-tingency tables are necessary to perform the analysis of the predictive ability of the model in a semi-distributedway. All this taking into account the intensity of droughts using di¿erent scenarios based on the threshold belowwhich it is considered to be in drought. Finally, a single value is obtained to determine the predictive ability ofthe forecasting model for the entire basin. The proposed methodology is applied to the Júcar river basin in Spain.It has been found that the analyzed forecast model shows better results than those obtained using an auto-regressive model. Further work is needed to enhance climate forecasting from the perspective of water resourcesmanagement, however, it should be mentioned that this type of data could be used for drought forecasting,allowing possible mitigation measures.The authors thank the Spanish Research Agency (MINECO) for the financial support to ERAS project (CTM2016-77804-P, including EU-FEDER funds). Additionally, we also value the support provided by the European Community's in financing the projects SWICCA (ECMRWF-Copernicus-FA 2015/ C3S_441-LOT1/SMHI) and IMPREX (H2020-WATER-2014-2015, 641811).ElsevierDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio AmbienteInstituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio AmbienteEscuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y PuertosEuropean CommissionSveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska InstitutMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadRepositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet20182018-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/112722reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valénciainstname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)InglésengEuropean Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 H2020 641811 IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremesMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CTM2016-77804-P ESTIMACION DEL RIESGO AMBIENTAL FRENTE A LAS SEQUIAS Y EL CAMBIO CLIMATICOopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riunet.upv.es:10251/1127222026-06-13T07:49:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
title Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
spellingShingle Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
Madrigal-Barrera, José Jaime
Drought forecasting
Forecast verification
Contingency table
Jucar river basin
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
title_short Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
title_full Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
title_fullStr Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
title_full_unstemmed Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
title_sort Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Madrigal-Barrera, José Jaime
Sanchez Quispe, Sonia Tatiana
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Suárez-Almiñana, Sara
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín|||0000-0001-5087-5014
author Madrigal-Barrera, José Jaime
author_facet Madrigal-Barrera, José Jaime
Sanchez Quispe, Sonia Tatiana
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Suárez-Almiñana, Sara
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín|||0000-0001-5087-5014
author_role author
author2 Sanchez Quispe, Sonia Tatiana
Solera Solera, Abel|||0000-0001-7464-3963
Suárez-Almiñana, Sara
Paredes Arquiola, Javier|||0000-0003-3198-2169
Andreu Álvarez, Joaquín|||0000-0001-5087-5014
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente
Instituto Universitario de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería de Caminos, Canales y Puertos
European Commission
Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politècnica de València Riunet
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Drought forecasting
Forecast verification
Contingency table
Jucar river basin
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
topic Drought forecasting
Forecast verification
Contingency table
Jucar river basin
INGENIERIA HIDRAULICA
description [EN] Droughts cause signi¿cant socio-economic and environmental impacts, so it has become an extremely importantelement in decision-making within water resource systems. For this reason, the research in this ¿eld has in-creased considerably over the last few decades. In order to be capable of making early decisions and reducingdrought impacts, it is necessary to predict the occurrence of such events months or even years in advance. In thissense, various methods have been used to predict the occurrence of droughts. At present, seasonal forecast datacan be used to forecast meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and operational droughts. However, the sea-sonal forecast data of these dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models must be analyzed in an exhaustiveway, since it is known that these models may not adequately represent the climatic variability at river basinscale. Hence, this paper presents a new methodology for assessing the skill of a climate forecasting system inorder to predict the occurrence of droughts by using contingency tables. The indices obtained from the con-tingency tables are necessary to perform the analysis of the predictive ability of the model in a semi-distributedway. All this taking into account the intensity of droughts using di¿erent scenarios based on the threshold belowwhich it is considered to be in drought. Finally, a single value is obtained to determine the predictive ability ofthe forecasting model for the entire basin. The proposed methodology is applied to the Júcar river basin in Spain.It has been found that the analyzed forecast model shows better results than those obtained using an auto-regressive model. Further work is needed to enhance climate forecasting from the perspective of water resourcesmanagement, however, it should be mentioned that this type of data could be used for drought forecasting,allowing possible mitigation measures.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2018-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/112722
url https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/112722
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 H2020 641811 IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CTM2016-77804-P ESTIMACION DEL RIESGO AMBIENTAL FRENTE A LAS SEQUIAS Y EL CAMBIO CLIMATICO
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada (by-nc-nd)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
instname:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
reponame_str RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
collection RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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