Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe
There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its qua...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2018 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/122724 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/122724 https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Seasonal prediction (Meteorology) Seasonal climate forecast Probability Ensemble Forecast Weighted Multi-Model Forecast Verification Previsió del temps Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies |
| Sumario: | There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its quality to ensure its intended use. In this study, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation ensemble forecasts of the EUROSIP multi-model forecasting system over Europe. The forecasts from the four individual climate models within the EUROSIP are assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. One equally and two unequally Weighted Multi-Models (WMMs) are also constructed from the individual models, for both climate variables, and their respective forecasts are also assessed. Consistent with existing literature, we find limited seasonal climate prediction skill over Europe. A simple equally WMM system performs better than both unequally WMM combination systems. However, the equally WMM system does not always outperform the single best model within the EUROSIP multi-model. Based on the results, it is recommended to assess seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast of individual climate models as well as their multi-model mean for a comprehensive overview of the forecast skill. |
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