Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the rate of growth of CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and economic activity in Spain from 1964 to 2020. We explain CO<inf>2</inf> emissions by fitting a structural regression model with selected indicators of economic activity augme...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Juan Fernández, Aranzazu de, Poncela Blanco, María del Pilar, Ruiz, Esther
Tipo de documento: artigo
Data de publicação:2024
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
Repositório:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
Idioma:inglês
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/720760
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10486/720760
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02673-1
Access Level:Acceso aberto
Palavra-chave:Dynamic factor models
LASSO
Partial least squares
Variable selection
Economía
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spelling Economic activity and CO2 emissions in SpainJuan Fernández, Aranzazu dePoncela Blanco, María del PilarRuiz, EstherDynamic factor modelsLASSOPartial least squaresVariable selectionEconomíaIn this paper, we analyse the relationship between the rate of growth of CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and economic activity in Spain from 1964 to 2020. We explain CO<inf>2</inf> emissions by fitting a structural regression model with selected indicators of economic activity augmented with dynamic common factors extracted from a large macroeconomic database, as explanatory variables. The variables to include in the regression are selected using Machine Learning procedures while we use alternative supervised and non-supervised procedures to extract the factors. We find that, regardless of the procedure used for variable selection, private consumption and maritime transportation have the highest explanatory power for the rate of growth of emissions. We also show that the way the common factors are extracted is crucial to exploit their information content. The common factors extracted by partial least squares add valuable information on top of that of the selected individual indicators, while they are not significant when extracted by two-step-Kalman filter (2SKF)Financial support from the Spanish National Research Agency (Ministry of Science and Technology) Projects PID2022-139614NB-C21(AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and PID2022-139614NB-C22 is also acknowledged by the first two authors and the third author, respectivelySpringerDepartamento de Análisis Económico: Economía CuantitativaFacultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales20242024-11-12research articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10486/720760https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02673-1reponame:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAMinstname:Universidad Autónoma de MadridInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:repositorio.uam.es:10486/7207602026-06-23T12:46:27Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
title Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
spellingShingle Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
Juan Fernández, Aranzazu de
Dynamic factor models
LASSO
Partial least squares
Variable selection
Economía
title_short Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
title_full Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
title_fullStr Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
title_full_unstemmed Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
title_sort Economic activity and CO2 emissions in Spain
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Juan Fernández, Aranzazu de
Poncela Blanco, María del Pilar
Ruiz, Esther
author Juan Fernández, Aranzazu de
author_facet Juan Fernández, Aranzazu de
Poncela Blanco, María del Pilar
Ruiz, Esther
author_role author
author2 Poncela Blanco, María del Pilar
Ruiz, Esther
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Departamento de Análisis Económico: Economía Cuantitativa
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Dynamic factor models
LASSO
Partial least squares
Variable selection
Economía
topic Dynamic factor models
LASSO
Partial least squares
Variable selection
Economía
description In this paper, we analyse the relationship between the rate of growth of CO<inf>2</inf> emissions and economic activity in Spain from 1964 to 2020. We explain CO<inf>2</inf> emissions by fitting a structural regression model with selected indicators of economic activity augmented with dynamic common factors extracted from a large macroeconomic database, as explanatory variables. The variables to include in the regression are selected using Machine Learning procedures while we use alternative supervised and non-supervised procedures to extract the factors. We find that, regardless of the procedure used for variable selection, private consumption and maritime transportation have the highest explanatory power for the rate of growth of emissions. We also show that the way the common factors are extracted is crucial to exploit their information content. The common factors extracted by partial least squares add valuable information on top of that of the selected individual indicators, while they are not significant when extracted by two-step-Kalman filter (2SKF)
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024-11-12
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv research article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10486/720760
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02673-1
url http://hdl.handle.net/10486/720760
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02673-1
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
instname:Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
instname_str Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
reponame_str Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
collection Biblos-e Archivo. Repositorio Institucional de la UAM
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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