On first-passage times and sojourn times in finite qbd processes and their applications in epidemics

In this paper, we revisit level-dependent quasi-birth-death processes with finitely many possible values of the level and phase variables by complementing the work of Gaver, Jacobs, and Latouche (Adv. Appl. Probab. 1984), where the emphasis is upon obtaining numerical methods for evaluating stationa...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Gómez Corral, Antonio, López-García, M., López Herrero, María Jesús, Taipe Hidalgo, Diana Paulina
Formato: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/102080
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102080
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:519.21
519.22-76
616.9
Epidemic modeling
First-passage times
Hitting probabilities
Quasi-birth-death processes
Sojourn times
Probabilidades (Estadística)
Ciencias Biomédicas
Enfermedades infecciosas
3202 Epidemiología
2404.01 Bioestadística
1208 Probabilidad
3205.05 Enfermedades Infecciosas
Descrição
Resumo:In this paper, we revisit level-dependent quasi-birth-death processes with finitely many possible values of the level and phase variables by complementing the work of Gaver, Jacobs, and Latouche (Adv. Appl. Probab. 1984), where the emphasis is upon obtaining numerical methods for evaluating stationary probabilities and moments of first-passage times to higher and lower levels. We provide a matrix-analytic scheme for numerically computing hitting probabilities, the number of upcrossings, sojourn time analysis, and the random area under the level trajectory. Our algorithmic solution is inspired from Gaussian elimination, which is applicable in all our descriptors since the underlying rate matrices have a block-structured form. Using the results obtained, numerical examples are given in the context of varicella-zoster virus infections.