Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves

Background: Bed occupancy in the ICU is a major constraint to in-patient care during COVID-19 pandemic. Diagnoses of acute respiratory infection (ARI) by general practitioners have not previously been investigated as an early warning indicator of ICU occupancy. Methods: A population-based central he...

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Autores: Guillén, Montserrat, Bardes Robles, Ignasi, Bordera Cabrera, Ester, Acebes Roldán, Xénia, Bolancé Losilla, Catalina, Jorba, Daniel, Moriña, David
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
OAI Identifier:oai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/193711
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/193711
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
Unitats de cures intensives
Epidemiologia
Intensive care units
Epidemiology
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spelling Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 wavesGuillén, MontserratBardes Robles, IgnasiBordera Cabrera, EsterAcebes Roldán, XéniaBolancé Losilla, CatalinaJorba, DanielMoriña, DavidCOVID-19Unitats de cures intensivesEpidemiologiaCOVID-19Intensive care unitsEpidemiologyBackground: Bed occupancy in the ICU is a major constraint to in-patient care during COVID-19 pandemic. Diagnoses of acute respiratory infection (ARI) by general practitioners have not previously been investigated as an early warning indicator of ICU occupancy. Methods: A population-based central health care system registry in the autonomous community of Catalonia, Spain, was used to analyze all diagnoses of ARI related to COVID-19 established by general practitioners and the number of occupied ICU beds in all hospitals from Catalonia between March 26, 2020 and January 20, 2021. The primary outcome was the cross-correlation between the series of COVID-19-related ARI cases and ICU bed occupancy taking into account the effect of bank holidays and weekends. Recalculations were later implemented until March 27, 2022. Findings: Weekly average incidence of ARI diagnoses increased from 252.7 per 100,000 in August, 2020 to 496.5 in October, 2020 (294.2 in November, 2020), while the average number of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19-infected patients rose from 1.7 per 100,000 to 3.5 in the same period (6.9 in November, 2020). The incidence of ARI detected in the primary care setting anticipated hospital occupancy of ICUs, with a maximum correlation of 17.3 days in advance (95% confidence interval 15.9 to 18.9). Interpretation: COVID-19-related ARI cases may be a novel warning sign of ICU occupancy with a delay of over two weeks, a latency window period for establishing restrictions on social contacts and mobility to mitigate the propagation of COVID-19. Monitoring ARI cases would enable immediate adoption of measures to prevent ICU saturation in future waves.Public Library of Science (PLoS)2022info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2445/193711Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UBinstname:Universidad de BarcelonaInglésReproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267428PLoS One, 2022, vol. 17, num. 5, p. e0267428https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267428cc-by (c) Guillén, Montserrat et al., 2022https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:diposit.ub.edu:2445/1937112026-05-27T06:46:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
title Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
spellingShingle Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
Guillén, Montserrat
COVID-19
Unitats de cures intensives
Epidemiologia
COVID-19
Intensive care units
Epidemiology
title_short Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
title_full Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
title_fullStr Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
title_full_unstemmed Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
title_sort Acute respiratory infection rates in primary care anticipate ICU bed occupancy during COVID-19 waves
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Guillén, Montserrat
Bardes Robles, Ignasi
Bordera Cabrera, Ester
Acebes Roldán, Xénia
Bolancé Losilla, Catalina
Jorba, Daniel
Moriña, David
author Guillén, Montserrat
author_facet Guillén, Montserrat
Bardes Robles, Ignasi
Bordera Cabrera, Ester
Acebes Roldán, Xénia
Bolancé Losilla, Catalina
Jorba, Daniel
Moriña, David
author_role author
author2 Bardes Robles, Ignasi
Bordera Cabrera, Ester
Acebes Roldán, Xénia
Bolancé Losilla, Catalina
Jorba, Daniel
Moriña, David
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Unitats de cures intensives
Epidemiologia
COVID-19
Intensive care units
Epidemiology
topic COVID-19
Unitats de cures intensives
Epidemiologia
COVID-19
Intensive care units
Epidemiology
description Background: Bed occupancy in the ICU is a major constraint to in-patient care during COVID-19 pandemic. Diagnoses of acute respiratory infection (ARI) by general practitioners have not previously been investigated as an early warning indicator of ICU occupancy. Methods: A population-based central health care system registry in the autonomous community of Catalonia, Spain, was used to analyze all diagnoses of ARI related to COVID-19 established by general practitioners and the number of occupied ICU beds in all hospitals from Catalonia between March 26, 2020 and January 20, 2021. The primary outcome was the cross-correlation between the series of COVID-19-related ARI cases and ICU bed occupancy taking into account the effect of bank holidays and weekends. Recalculations were later implemented until March 27, 2022. Findings: Weekly average incidence of ARI diagnoses increased from 252.7 per 100,000 in August, 2020 to 496.5 in October, 2020 (294.2 in November, 2020), while the average number of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19-infected patients rose from 1.7 per 100,000 to 3.5 in the same period (6.9 in November, 2020). The incidence of ARI detected in the primary care setting anticipated hospital occupancy of ICUs, with a maximum correlation of 17.3 days in advance (95% confidence interval 15.9 to 18.9). Interpretation: COVID-19-related ARI cases may be a novel warning sign of ICU occupancy with a delay of over two weeks, a latency window period for establishing restrictions on social contacts and mobility to mitigate the propagation of COVID-19. Monitoring ARI cases would enable immediate adoption of measures to prevent ICU saturation in future waves.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2445/193711
url https://hdl.handle.net/2445/193711
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Reproducció del document publicat a: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267428
PLoS One, 2022, vol. 17, num. 5, p. e0267428
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267428
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv cc-by (c) Guillén, Montserrat et al., 2022
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv cc-by (c) Guillén, Montserrat et al., 2022
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science (PLoS)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Articles publicats en revistes (Econometria, Estadística i Economia Aplicada)
reponame:Dipòsit Digital de la UB
instname:Universidad de Barcelona
instname_str Universidad de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de la UB
collection Dipòsit Digital de la UB
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300719

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