Time window to constrain the corner value of the global seismic-moment distribution
It is well accepted that, at the global scale, the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law describing the distribution of earthquake magnitude or seismic moment has to be modified at the tail to properly account for the most extreme events. It is debated, though, how much additional time of earthquake recording...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2019 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya) |
| Repositorio: | Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:recercat.cat:2072/378003 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/2072/378003 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Matemàtiques 51 |
| Sumario: | It is well accepted that, at the global scale, the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law describing the distribution of earthquake magnitude or seismic moment has to be modified at the tail to properly account for the most extreme events. It is debated, though, how much additional time of earthquake recording will be necessary to properly constrain this tail. Using the global CMT catalog, we study how three modifications of the GR law that incorporate a corner-value parameter are compatible with the size of the largest observed earthquake in a given time window. Current data lead to a rather large range of parameter values (e.g., corner magnitude from 8.6 to 10.2 for the so-called tapered GR distribution). Updating this estimation in the future will strongly depend on the maximum magnitude observed, but, under reasonable assumptions, the range will be substantially reduced by the end of this century, contrary to claims in previous literature. |
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